A significant reduction in flood damage and erosion across urban Honolulu can be achieved by protecting native forests and controlling invasive species in the Ala Wai watershed, according to a new interdisciplinary study by researchers at the University of �鶹��ý at Mānoa and state and community partners released May 26.

The research examined how invasive species such as albizia and miconia affect flooding in the Makiki, Mānoa and Pālolo watersheds. Researchers found that unmanaged spread of the invasive plants over the next decade could nearly double expected annual flood damages from $68 million to $134 million.

The study was released following the March 23 flash flooding in Mānoa that overtopped Woodlawn Bridge, flooded homes and left mud across parts of the valley, including Noelani Elementary School. Researchers said healthy native forests act like a natural sponge by slowing stormwater runoff and stabilizing steep slopes. Invasive species can weaken those protections by increasing erosion and clogging streams with fallen trees and debris.

The research team combined hydrological monitoring data with land cover and economic modeling to measure the impacts of watershed management efforts led by the Koʻolau Mountains Watershed Partnership and the Oʻahu Invasive Species Committee.

“The results show decreased streamflow for a given rainfall amount in Makiki and Mānoa, where albizia and miconia were detected and removed most often,” the authors wrote, noting that runoff reductions were observed within just a few years of invasive species removal.

The study also projected that unchecked invasive species growth would more than double annual Ala Wai Canal dredging costs from about $1.4 million to $3 million because of increased sediment runoff. Researchers said the findings highlight the need for long-term funding to support watershed protection and invasive species management programs across �鶹��ý.

Project team members:

• Yu-Fen Huang (NREM)
• Yinphan Tsang (NREM)
• Leah Bremer (Institute for Sustainability and Resilience, UHERO, WRRC)
• Conrad Newfield (ISR, UHERO)
• Emma Yuen (Department of Land and Natural Resources–Forestry and Wildlife)
• Kimberly Burnett (UHERO)
• Nathan DeMaagd (NREM, UHERO)
• Jean Fujikawa (Oʻahu Invasive Species Committee)
• Nate Dube (Oʻahu Invasive Species Committee)
• Erin Bishop (Oʻahu Invasive Species Committee)
• Serene Smalley (Koʻolau Mountains Watershed Partnership)

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UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa’s .

Kona Low storms, rising oil prices and global conflict are creating new economic uncertainty for �鶹��ý, according to a new forecast from the (UHERO). The pressures are expected to push �鶹��ý inflation higher and weigh on visitor arrivals and spending.

The UHERO second quarter forecast released May 15 indicates �鶹��ý’s economy is slowing after what had been an improving outlook earlier this year. The war involving Iran has driven up global oil prices, increasing fuel and travel costs while weakening some of the international economies that help power �鶹��ý tourism.

At the same time, �鶹��ý is still recovering from damaging March Kona Low storms that caused flooding and infrastructure damage.

“�鶹��ý’s economy is facing a new wave of uncertainty,” UHERO economists wrote in the report.

Tourism entered 2026 with momentum before the storms caused a sharp drop in passenger counts. According to UHERO, conditions have since weakened as jet fuel prices surged, driving up airfare and contributing to airline capacity cuts. Canadian arrivals continue to decline, while Japanese travelers face the weakest yen purchasing power in decades.

UHERO projects visitor arrivals will grow about 2% this year before slowing sharply in 2027.

The labor market is also showing signs of strain. Payroll growth has been mostly flat, and federal employment has dropped by more than 3,000 jobs throughout the past year. Construction and healthcare remain bright spots, supported by major projects including recovery and rebuilding efforts on Maui following the 2023 wildfires and the New Aloha Stadium Entertainment District.

Housing affordability also remains a challenge. Median single-family home prices have hovered near $1 million, while insurance premiums continue rising following the Maui wildfires and recent storms.

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UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa’s .

The (UHERO) has released the �鶹��ý Housing Factbook 2026, the fourth edition of its annual report offering detailed analysis of the state’s housing market. The report finds that �鶹��ý’s housing crisis remains severe, despite modest improvements in affordability driven by flat home prices, rising incomes and lower mortgage rates in 2025. The Factbook also highlights growing risks from insurance costs, homeowners association fees, slow permitting, natural disasters and policy uncertainty.

“The data reflects our state’s deep housing crisis. Restoring affordability will require the production of more housing, and confronting the barriers that prevent homes from being built,” said lead author and UHERO Associate Professor Justin Tyndall.

Key findings from this year’s Factbook include:

• Home prices have leveled off, but remain extremely high: The statewide median price of a single-family home was $950,000 in 2025. Median single-family prices rose 1% statewide, while condominium prices declined 2%. Existing-home values, measured by UHERO’s Repeat Sales Index, were flat.
• Affordability improved for a second year, but homeownership remains out of reach for most households: Affording the median single-family home still requires more than 180% of the state median income, putting it within reach for only about one-in-five �鶹��ý households. Condominium affordability improved more sharply, although rising HOA fees and insurance costs may offset some of those gains.
• Housing costs now include rising insurance and association-fee burdens: New Census data show that 42% of �鶹��ý homeowners pay monthly HOA or AOAO fees, compared with 25% nationally. �鶹��ý also had the second-highest median monthly HOA fee in the country at $470. In Honolulu, real estate listings from February 2026 showed a median advertised HOA/AOAO fee of $882. Insurance costs are also rising rapidly, with �鶹��ý’s aggregate property insurance premiums paid in the state increasing 13% in 2024—well above the national average and the largest annual increase in over a decade.
• Permitting delays continue to constrain new housing supply: County permitting reforms have produced mixed results. �鶹��ý County and Maui County recorded faster single-family permit processing times in 2025, while Kauaʻi’s delays worsened. In Honolulu, UHERO was unable to obtain records after the launch of the city’s new permitting system, but permits issued in the first half of 2025 continued to show long processing times.
• Lahaina rebuilding is moving unevenly: Two and a half years after the 2023 Maui wildfires, Maui County reported 991 permits to rebuild permanent structures, with 634 issued. UHERO’s analysis finds that single-family homeowners, including vacation-home owners, are receiving permits faster than owners of long-term rentals, apartments and businesses. About 57% of fire-damaged lots showed no permit activity to date.
• Policy changes are reshaping Maui’s condo market: Maui County’s Bill 9, which phases out roughly 7,000 short-term vacation rentals in apartment-zoned buildings, has already cooled the condo market. Maui condo prices in 2025 were down 11% from 2023, while prices for condos on the Minatoya list were down 16%.
• Extreme weather and flood-insurance changes add new housing-market risks: Severe Kona Low storms in March and April 2026 caused catastrophic flooding, landslides, evacuations and more than $1 billion in estimated damage. In June 2026, updated FEMA flood maps will add 3,700 net new parcels on Oʻahu to Special Flood Hazard Areas, raising costs and financing hurdles for 25% more property owners.
• Vacation rentals remain a major share of neighbor-island housing: �鶹��ý had about 34,500 active advertised vacation rental properties in 2025, up from 33,600 in 2024. Vacation rentals account for 20% of all housing units on Kauaʻi and 15% in Maui County, compared with 2.5% in Honolulu.

The Factbook is based on a wide range of data sources and offers housing indicators at the state, county and zip code levels.

The .

UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa’s .

Expanding �鶹��ý’s Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit could help more parents stay in or reenter the workforce while partially offsetting its own cost through increased state tax revenue, according to a new report released May 1 by the (UHERO).

The report examines proposals before the state legislature to increase the maximum childcare tax credit from $2,500 to $5,000 per child, with two bills taking different approaches to how benefits phase out as household income rises.

Researchers find that �鶹��ý’s high childcare costs are among the highest in the nation, and often discourage secondary earners, most often mothers, from returning to work. In 2024, center-based infant care averages more than $24,000 annually in �鶹��ý.

The report explains that the policy’s offsetting effect occurs when a second parent enters the workforce, resulting in increased income tax revenue and additional general excise tax collections. In one mid-income household example, a second earner returning to work would generate $3,401 in state income tax revenue and $1,763 in additional GET revenue under the targeted credit proposal, resulting in a net fiscal gain of $2,663 for the state even after accounting for the $2,500 credit cost.

The report finds the strongest case for expanding the credit is among middle-income households, where childcare costs consume a large share of income, and the added tax credit is more likely to influence work decisions.

However, the report cautions that expanding the credit alone may not be sufficient if �鶹��ý’s childcare supply cannot keep pace with demand. Without more childcare spaces, subsidies could simply drive up prices rather than improve access. The report also notes that for lower-income families, benefit cliffs—when earning slightly more income causes families to lose eligibility for public benefits such as SNAP or childcare assistance—could reduce the effectiveness of any tax credit expansion.

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UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa’s .

Switching �鶹��ý’s power plants from oil to liquefied natural gas (LNG) may not deliver the dramatic drop in electricity prices that some proposals promise, according to a new analysis by the (UHERO), released April 14.

�鶹��ý has the highest electricity rates in the nation, largely because it relies on imported oil. But a 2024 fuel contract renegotiation by Hawaiian Electric has already begun easing some of that burden by reducing how strongly global oil price spikes translate into local costs, saving tens of millions of dollars each month compared to the previous agreement.

The report finds that while natural gas is often far cheaper than oil on the continental U.S., �鶹��ý faces higher costs because the fuel must be cooled, shipped across the ocean and converted back into gas. Those steps significantly narrow the price gap and expose the state to volatile global LNG markets, where prices can surge during supply disruptions.

At current prices, LNG still holds a modest cost advantage over oil. However, much of the projected savings comes not from the fuel itself but from newer, more efficient power plants that use less energy to generate electricity. Similar efficiency gains could be achieved without switching fuels.

Long-term investment concerns

The analysis also raises concerns about long-term investments in LNG infrastructure. Under scenarios where �鶹��ý continues expanding renewable energy, such as solar paired with battery storage, LNG facilities could be underused while ratepayers remain responsible for their costs. Solar and battery systems are already competitive with fossil fuels and avoid the risks tied to global fuel markets.

The findings suggest that while LNG could offer short-term benefits under certain conditions, its long-term value is uncertain compared to continued investment in renewable energy and recent improvements to oil supply contracts.

“The upside is modest and front-loaded; the downside arrives when things go wrong—and in energy markets, they eventually do,” wrote UHERO Research Fellow and UH Mānoa Economics Professor Michael J. Roberts.

Visit UHERO’s website for the and .

UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa’s .

A single new condominium tower in Honolulu may have opened up hundreds of additional housing opportunities across Oʻahu, according to new research from the (UHERO).

The study examines a concept known as housing filtering, a process in which new construction sets off a chain of moves that frees up existing homes across the market. When a household moves into a newly built unit, it leaves behind a previous home, creating an opportunity for another household, and so on.

500+ housing vacancies created

UHERO Associate Professor Justin Tyndall tracked this effect using The Central, a 512-unit mixed-income condo completed in 2021 near Ala Moana. He estimated the project generated more than 500 housing vacancies islandwide within three years, expanding availability far beyond the building itself.

“For policymakers and planners, the results highlight the importance of considering these broader market dynamics when evaluating housing policy,” Tyndall wrote. “Expanding housing supply in high-demand areas can improve affordability not only through income-restricted units, but also through the filtering process that returns older housing stock to the market.”

Greater affordability across the market

He added, “Policies that block market-rate housing construction, because new units are expensive, can be largely counterproductive. The production of all types of housing pushes up the overall supply of homes and can contribute to greater affordability across all segments of the market.”

The homes freed up through these chains were often more affordable and larger than the new units. On average, they were about 40% less expensive per square foot and more likely to include single-family homes with three or more bedrooms.

The study also found that market-rate units tended to produce more total vacancies, while income-restricted units more often opened up lower-cost housing options. Most of the movement remained local, with the majority of households relocating within �鶹��ý.

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UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa’s .

For 23 of the past 25 years, more residents have left �鶹��ý than arrived from the continental U.S., according to an . The research finds the answer is not because of high prices or low incomes, but a combination of both that puts the state in a rare and troubling category.

�鶹��ý stands out nationally for having both high living costs and relatively modest incomes, a mix that researchers say drives persistent outmigration. While expensive continental U.S. cities often retain residents with higher wages, �鶹��ý more closely resembles economically “left-behind” regions where limited opportunity pushes people to leave.

An analysis of migration patterns across states and 384 U.S. metro areas shows that higher prices tend to push residents out, while higher incomes attract them. In �鶹��ý, both forces are working in the same direction, but while �鶹��ý has always been expensive, the widening income gap with the rest of the nation is a growing and more troubling driver.

‘Priced out and left behind’

“This combination places �鶹��ý in one of the rarest and most concerning categories in the national data: simultaneously priced out and left behind,” wrote UHERO authors Steven Bond-Smith and Erich Schwartz. “Residents are not leaving for a single reason. They are responding to a structure of economic pressures that makes staying difficult and makes opportunity elsewhere increasingly attractive.”

In urban Honolulu, high costs account for a significant share of outmigration. Incomes, which have recently fallen below the national average, add growing pressure. On Maui, price and income effects are more evenly matched, with both contributing to residents leaving. In both cases, lagging incomes predict growing shares of outmigration, while the high cost of living predicts relatively constant shares. While �鶹��ý Island and �鶹��ý were excluded from the city dataset, researchers believe similar forces are likely happening there too.

Researchers identified additional local factors in Honolulu—including geographic isolation, limited housing supply, congestion and a narrow industry base—that intensify migration pressures beyond what prices and incomes alone would predict.

When adjusting for cost of living, �鶹��ý’s income levels align more closely with struggling continental U.S. regions than with high-cost, high-wage cities such as San Francisco or Seattle.

This post focuses on a key theme from UHERO’s comprehensive report, “Beyond the Price of Paradise: Is �鶹��ý being left behind?” released on February 1. In that report, researchers say lowering the cost of living alone won’t be enough, and that �鶹��ý must boost long-term income and productivity growth to remain economically sustainable. They recommend policies that diversify the economy, support innovation and remove barriers to growth, alongside continued efforts to improve affordability.

UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa .

The 2023 Maui wildfires were linked to significantly higher levels of depression and anxiety among residents, with impacts extending beyond the burn zones and closely tied to housing and income disruption. That’s according to a new University of �鶹��ý at Mānoa study published March 11 in .

The study examined 2,453 adults, including 1,535 wildfire-exposed residents on Maui and 918 unexposed residents from other �鶹��ý counties. The data was gathered between January 2024 and February 2025 through the (MauiWES) and the ’s (UHERO) Rapid Health Survey.

Key findings

• Residents inside burn zones had a 53% higher risk of depression and 67% higher risk of anxiety compared to unexposed residents.
• Maui residents living outside burn zones also experienced significantly elevated mental health risks, including more than double the risk of suicidal thoughts.
• More than half of the wildfire’s impact on depression and anxiety could be traced to housing instability and lost income.
• Being employed was strongly protective against depression, anxiety and suicidal ideation.

“These findings show that the wildfire’s psychological toll is not confined to the areas that burned,” said lead author and UHERO Professor Ruben Juarez. “The social and economic disruption—especially housing instability and income disruption—is driving much of the distress we see across the community.”

See more �鶹��ýNews stories on MauiWES

Co-author and Professor Alika K. Maunakea added, “Climate disasters affect biological, social and economic systems at the same time. If we only rebuild structures and do not stabilize housing, employment and mental health services, we leave communities vulnerable long after the smoke clears.”

Co-author Christopher Knightsbridge, a mental health therapist from MauiWES based in Lahaina said, “The harm did not stop at the burn zone. Housing disruption and income loss have extended the crisis into daily life, which is why recovery must include stronger housing, economic, and mental health supports.”

The August 2023 fires, which killed more than 100 people and destroyed more than 2,200 structures, displaced an estimated 10,000 residents. The study found that psychological distress persisted six to 18 months after the disaster.

UHERO is housed in the .

A $2-million gift from Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez Bezos is supporting University of �鶹��ý-led research aimed at restoring fire-prone grasslands on Maui and reducing the risk of future wildfires, building on and long-term recovery following the devastating 2023 fires.

Much of Maui’s former sugar plantation lands are now unmanaged and dominated by invasive species, such as guinea grass, that create more fire-prone vegetation and intensify wildfire risk. Several UH units are collaborating to address that vulnerability through land stewardship research designed to inform policy and guide on-the-ground management decisions.

The effort brings together researchers from the (UHERO) housed in UH ����ԴDz�’s , the , and the Ecosystems and Land Care Program in the Department of (NREM) in the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resilience. The work will be conducted with watershed partners, ranchers and ʻāina (land)-based organizations across �鶹��ý.

“Insufficient investment in land care across former plantation lands has left large areas of Maui vulnerable to wildfire,” said Kimberly Burnett, a specialist with UHERO. “This work builds on evidence that actively managed lands, including forests, well-managed rangelands and agriculture, can significantly reduce fuel loads and support outcomes like erosion reduction, food production, biodiversity and community resilience.”

Data-driven strategies for wildfire prevention

In the early stages of the project, researchers will work closely with partners to co-develop research questions and products that are directly useful for land managers and decision-makers. Anticipated outcomes include statewide wildfire risk and probability maps to help guide fire reduction strategies across a range of land uses, as well as analyses of different wildfire mitigation scenarios over space and time.

Those scenarios may include forest restoration, green breaks, agroforestry, grazing and mowing, with researchers assessing the benefits and costs of each approach.

“We want to look at options beyond just mowing brush given how well these different actions align with other things people value and contribute to public safety,” said Clay Trauernicht, a specialist with NREM.

The project will also examine policy and market-based tools that could help finance and support land-use transitions that advance multiple ecosystem services, including wildfire risk reduction, across �鶹��ý.

The gift builds on existing support from the Bezos Maui Fund to restore the island’s watersheds and reduce wildfire risk, and reflects a broader strategy that links environmental recovery with community resilience. That land-based work is complemented by a separate $1.5-million investment to support Lahainaluna High School graduates enrolled at UH who continue to face economic hardship following the fires.

“We are profoundly grateful to our donors for their continued commitment to Maui,” said UH Foundation CEO and Vice President of Advancement Tim Dolan. “Their support is making a lasting difference for the people and places that define this community.”

A new report from the (UHERO) emphasizes the crucial role of the UH Community Colleges’ Good Jobs �鶹��ý (GJH) program in successfully placing residents into high-demand, higher-paying careers. The preliminary analysis by Rachel Inafuku provides more evidence that these targeted training programs are helping families combat �鶹��ý’s persistent, high cost of living.

“Consistent with the , average real quarterly wages for [Good Jobs �鶹��ý] completers were more than $2,000 higher two quarters after program completion than two quarters prior,” the report said. This increase demonstrates how these short-term programs are creating essential earning power.

Higher healthcare earnings

The most dramatic gains were found among those who transitioned into a new field after training. In healthcare, the largest GJH pathway, participants who switched from non-healthcare industries—such as retail or food services—saw their average quarterly earnings rise by more than $5,500 two quarters after completion. This amounts to an annualized earnings increase of $22,000 for workers entering a sector with sustained high demand due to �鶹��ý’s aging population.

Significant gains for skilled trades

Similarly, skilled trades completers realized significant wage gains, earning roughly $2,600 more per quarter post-program. Employment patterns for this group also shifted away from lower-wage sectors and toward construction, manufacturing and public administration, aligning with the state’s thriving construction industry and its well-above-average wages.

Smaller increases for tech

Outcomes varied by sector. Technology students—many of whom were mid-career workers with pre-program earnings higher than the average GJH student—experienced smaller wage increases and more modest changes in industry placement.

Read more UH News Good Jobs �鶹��ý stories

Overall, these findings highlight how post-training earnings trajectories reflect both the specific skills acquired and the broader structure of �鶹��ý’s labor market.

Inafuku said, “As �鶹��ý continues to face a high demand for workers in critical sectors alongside persistent cost-of-living pressures, workforce programs that align training with industry needs can address both challenges—placing workers in more stable, higher-paying jobs while helping employers meet demand.”

UHERO is housed in UH ����ԴDz�’s .

The gap between what �鶹��ý residents can afford compared to elsewhere in the U.S. widens every year, not because of high prices, but because of lagging productivity and wage growth, according to a new analysis released March 5, by the University of �鶹��ý Economic Research Organization (UHERO).

The state’s economic stagnation, which began in the early 1990s, has never truly ended for residents, according to the authors. Adjusting for �鶹��ý’s substantially higher cost of living, while national metrics suggested a recovery in the 2000s, the state’s real per capita GDP has been on a permanently lower, underperforming trajectory.

by Steven Bond-Smith and Erich Schwartz, details how �鶹��ý’s economic boom in the 1980s made it highly vulnerable to the collapse of Japan’s asset bubble. Despite an initial delay in the shock, the downturn exposed local weaknesses such as overreliance on tourism and slow economic diversification.

Slower growth, widening gap

Standard measures, which adjust for national inflation rates, indicate �鶹��ý mostly kept pace with the U.S. economy and has only just fallen below the U.S. average in recent years. However, by accounting for local prices, the UHERO analysis tells a different story. When cost-of-living is factored in, the lost decade of the 1990s wasn’t quite as bad as it first appears, as prices grew more slowly in �鶹��ý than in the U.S. overall, but the recovery is also muted as prices returned to their long-run relative level.

This results in an average real per capita growth rate since 2005 of a meager 0.7% per year, essentially matching the slow growth rate of the lost decade and its recovery from 1990 to 2005. As such, the lost decade never really ended in �鶹��ý. This persistently slower growth rate has resulted in a gap with the mainland U.S. that has steadily widened. The primary driver of the widening gap appears to be that the state’s dominant tourism industry plateaued, and other sectors have not emerged to offset this slowdown.

“�鶹��ý’s ‘lost decade’ has become a lost generation,” the report states.

Economic underperformance, social consequences

This persistent underperformance reframes many of the state’s most pressing issues, including outmigration, housing stress and the difficulty for middle-class families to sustain a standard of living. The findings underscore a need for policies that address the long-term structural weaknesses in the state’s economy rather than focusing solely on the cost of living, which would only provide temporary relief from the widening gap between �鶹��ý and the U.S. overall.

The analysis builds on a February 1, 2026 UHERO report, “Beyond the Price of Paradise: Is �鶹��ý Being Left Behind?” also authored by Bond-Smith and Schwartz.

UHERO is housed in .

Two new grants totaling nearly $800,000 will support the University of �鶹��ý’s ongoing (MauiWES), a long-term effort tracking the health impacts of the 2023 Lahaina fires on Maui residents.

The �鶹��ý Community Foundation has awarded $450,000 through its Maui Strong Fund, and Kaiser Permanente has committed $337,500 to the study. The funding will help sustain health screenings, follow-up visits and community outreach as researchers continue monitoring the physical and mental health effects of wildfire exposure.

“This support allows us to keep showing up for the Maui community over the long term,” said study co-lead Ruben Juarez, professor at the (UHERO). “The willingness of residents to participate and return for follow-up visits reflects a level of trust that is essential for understanding the full health impacts of the fires—and for responding in ways that truly help families over time.”

The �鶹��ý Community Foundation funding was awarded through the Maui Recovery Funders Collaborative, which was established in response to the Maui wildfires. The collaborative coordinates a variety of funders to streamline funding opportunities for community service providers and organizations.

“The �鶹��ý Community Foundation, through its Maui Strong Fund, is a proud participant of the Maui Recovery Funders Collaborative, which has awarded over $9 million in funds to support organizations that are assisting those impacted by the fires,” said HCF CEO and President Terry George. “Efforts like the MauiWES not only help to provide continued health and mental health support to survivors but also help us to be better prepared and ultimately more resilient in the face of future disasters.”

“Kaiser Permanente’s commitment to funding the Maui Wildfire Exposure Study reflects the belief that strong, community‑focused research should guide long‑term recovery and future preparedness,” said David Tumilowicz, senior director of marketing and community health, Kaiser Permanente. “As climate‑driven wildfires become more frequent and destructive, we need clear, reliable health and environmental data to understand exposure risks, improve clinical care, and strengthen public health systems throughout the United States. MauiWES is providing essential insights that support Maui’s healing, while helping communities everywhere become more resilient in the face of future disasters.”

The grants arrive at an important moment for the project. In December 2025, MauiWES surpassed its 3,000th completed appointment. More than 2,000 participants have taken part since the study began, and more than 1,000 have already returned for follow-up visits, reflecting sustained engagement and growing trust within the community.

Launched after the deadly wildfires that destroyed large parts of Lahaina, MauiWES is a collaboration among UHERO, (JABSOM) and UH Maui College. The study provides free health screenings while generating data to better understand the long-term health consequences of wildfire smoke, environmental exposure and disaster-related stress.

Health challenges continue for residents

The study’s latest findings, published in August 2025 in JAMA Network Open, show that health challenges persist nearly two years after the fires. Many participants reported ongoing symptoms such as fatigue and breathing problems, alongside measurable differences in lung function indicators among those living closest to the burn zone. Mental health impacts also remain widespread, with a substantial share of participants screening positive for depressive symptoms and anxiety.

At the same time, researchers found that strong social support was linked to better mental well-being and fewer days of poor health, even among those with high wildfire exposure. While social connections supported mental health, they did not offset physical effects, highlighting the need for continued medical monitoring and care.

“These new grants come at a critical time,” said co-lead Alika Maunakea, professor in the Department of Anatomy, Biochemistry and Physiology at JABSOM. “They ensure we can continue monitoring both physical and mental health effects more than two years after the fires, while strengthening the community-based approach that our findings show is critical to recovery.”

Juarez and Maunakea recently returned from the first , held in commemoration of the first anniversary of the fires, where they presented findings from MauiWES to help inform the response to the Los Angeles fires. Teams from University of Southern California, University of California, Los Angeles, Stanford University and Harvard University are exploring similar cohort-based approaches informed by lessons from MauiWES for the Altadena, Eaton and Palisades fires.

See more UH News stories on MauiWES.

�鶹��ý’s economy is moving beyond last year’s mild recession, but the recovery will be gradual, according to the ’s (UHERO) first quarter forecast for 2026 released on February 27. After job losses tied to a tourism downturn and federal job cuts, payrolls have begun to edge upward.

A resilient U.S. economy and continued strength in construction are providing support, even as international visitor markets languish. Tepid job and income growth will become the new normal, because of anemic population trends and structural underperformance (relatively low long-run growth trend).

Major takeaways of the February 27 report:

• The U.S. economy has held up better than expected, with solid consumer spending, investments in artificial intelligence and improving productivity. Economic gains slowed in the fourth quarter of 2025, partly because of the federal government shutdown. UHERO expects growth to remain near 2% this year before slowing somewhat in 2027. It is too soon to know the effects of the recent Supreme Court decision invalidating the administration’s broad tariffs. Globally, conditions have improved modestly, but continued trade tensions and policy uncertainty present ongoing risks.
• Tourism has stabilized but is not yet expanding. In 2025, the average daily visitor census dropped 1.3%. The Japanese recovery has resumed at a moderate pace, but arrivals from other international markets have fallen sharply, reflecting adverse reaction to U.S. federal policy. Domestic visitors have helped offset these losses, and spending rose last year even as visitor numbers declined. Arrivals will stabilize this year, but a more substantial recovery in visitor headcounts is not expected until 2027.
• The local labor market has improved modestly after contracting in the first half of 2025. UHERO now expects a small net increase in payroll jobs this year. Construction, health care and the accommodations and food service sectors will continue to add jobs, while federal civilian employment losses will pull down growth numbers. The unemployment rate will remain near its current low 2.2% level.
• Inflation in Honolulu is expected to peak just above 3% in the second half of this year, although persistent U.S. inflation and the recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs introduce considerable uncertainty. Local inflation will then ease to a 2.5% trend. Mortgage rates will remain near 6%, weighing on housing affordability even as construction activity overall remains elevated.

Overall, UHERO expects �鶹��ý’s economy to expand at a modest rate over the next several years.

“Real income will grow by about 1% annually,” UHERO wrote. “Real GDP will expand by 1.6% this year before converging to a similarly slow long-run growth path. Forecast risks remain significant, including trade policy uncertainty, potential additional federal workforce reductions and ongoing weakness in international tourism. While the adoption of artificial intelligence holds promise, �鶹��ý’s road ahead still looks to be one with slower growth than we have seen in the past.”

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UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa’s .

See the latest episode of UHERO Focus.

�鶹��ý may increasingly resemble economically distressed “left-behind” regions—not because of rising prices, but because incomes and productivity have lagged for decades, according to a new analysis released February 19, by the (UHERO). “Left-behind” regions are areas where slow growth and limited opportunity leave incomes and productivity lagging behind the national average, often affecting residents’ economic mobility and overall opportunity.

The analysis builds on a February 1 UHERO report, “Beyond the Price of Paradise: Is �鶹��ý Being Left Behind?” Also authored by Steven Bond-Smith and Erich Schwartz, it highlights new comparisons showing how the state ranks when income is adjusted for cost of living.

Using a price-adjusted measure of GDP per capita, the researchers found that once purchasing power is considered, �鶹��ý’s real income per person has barely grown since the early 1990s and has steadily diverged from the national average. The February 19 analysis also compares �鶹��ý to federal benchmarks used to define economic distress. When incomes are adjusted for local prices and compared across states, �鶹��ý’s relative position drops sharply—placing it closer to slower-growth states than to high-income, high-cost metro areas such as Seattle or Boston.

Tourism, the state’s dominant industry, boomed in the decades after statehood but has largely plateaued since the late 1980s. Without sustained expansion in its economic backbone, broader growth has remained weak. The authors argue that �鶹��ý’s high cost of living may mask deeper structural problems.

“What distinguishes �鶹��ý is not only that it is expensive,” the researchers wrote. “It is that incomes and productivity have not kept up, and this has persisted for decades.”

The findings reinforce conclusions from the February 1 report that the state’s challenges stem less from rising prices than from long-term stagnation in productivity and per capita growth. The researchers warn that without diversification beyond tourism and stronger productivity gains, �鶹��ý risks continued economic stagnation and outmigration.

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UHERO is housed in .

Most �鶹��ý residents believe sea level rise is already affecting the state, expect major impacts within their lifetimes, and support significant changes to how and where development occurs. At the same time, many remain uncertain about how large-scale adaptation should be financed.

That’s according to a new statewide survey released by the (UHERO), the first representative study to measure public beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences related to sea level rise across all four counties. The report, Public Views on Sea Level Rise in �鶹��ý: Results from a Statewide Survey, draws on responses from 1,314 adults surveyed in summer 2025 and provides the most comprehensive snapshot to date of how residents view sea level rise and the policy choices it raises.

“Our findings show that �鶹��ý residents overwhelmingly accept that sea level rise is happening,” said Colin Moore, political scientist and associate professor at UHERO. “There is broad agreement that action is needed. The harder question is not whether to act, but how to structure adaptation in a way that is credible, fair and sustainable over time.”

Among the study’s key findings:

• 89% of residents believe sea level rise is happening, including large majorities of Democrats (97%), Independents (90%) and Republicans (80%).
• Nearly half say sea level rise is already affecting people in �鶹��ý, and more than 80% expect impacts within the next 25 years.
• 83% believe sea level rise will have catastrophic consequences for the state within 50 years.
• About 90% support restricting development in flood-prone areas, and more than 80% favor prioritizing inland development over continued coastal expansion.
• 81% would be willing to relocate from high-risk areas if offered fair compensation.
• Only 45% say they would be willing to pay higher taxes or fees to fund neighborhood-level protection projects.

“People clearly recognize the risks and support major shifts in coastal policy, including limits on development and public assistance for relocation,” said Ketty Loeb, a co-author and assistant professor at the . “At the same time, many residents report feeling poorly informed about sea level rise and doubt that government agencies are fully prepared. That combination creates both an opportunity and a responsibility for policymakers to engage the public more directly about what adaptation will involve.”

Support for government assistance

The survey also found strong support for government assistance to property owners in vulnerable areas, including expanded access to flood insurance, incentives to elevate or flood-proof buildings, and public funding to support voluntary relocation. Residents were more divided on shoreline armoring, with narrow majority support for private seawalls but much stronger backing for seawalls protecting public infrastructure such as roads and utilities.

“�鶹��ý residents are keenly aware of sea level rise, and they are pragmatic about what lies ahead,” said Zena Grecni, researcher with Pacific RISA and co-author of the report. “They support protecting or adapting communities where possible and relocating when necessary. What remains uncertain is how the costs of those choices should be shared across households, communities, and levels of government.”

The research team also included Victoria Keener of Pacific RISA and Arizona State University. Funding for the project was provided by the Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University.

The full report is available on the .

UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa’s .

In response to the devastating 2023 wildfires, Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez Bezos have donated $1.5 million to support Lahainaluna High School students, along with an additional $2 million to fund research aimed at mitigating future wildfire risk through vegetation management. The gift builds on an from the Bezos Earth Fund to the East Maui Watershed Partnership.

Together, these philanthropic investments fund critical environmental recovery work and strengthen Maui communities for the long term.

$1.5 million for Lahainaluna students

In the days following the wildfires—the worst natural disaster in state history—t to Lahainaluna’s 2024 graduating class and supported their education at any of the 10 UH campuses.

This new $1.5-million donation is amplifying that effort, and directly benefiting Lahainaluna High School graduates who are currently enrolled at UH and still facing economic hardship related to displacement and loss.

The funding will provide students with tangible support, enabling them to stay focused on their studies as their community rebuilds. Leaders say the commitment affirms a shared responsibility to stand with Lahaina students and families as recovery gives way to renewed opportunity.

“We are deeply grateful to the generous donors whose support makes this possible,” said UH President Wendy Hensel. “This funding ensures that students who lost so much are not forced to put their futures on hold. Education is a cornerstone of recovery, and our responsibility is to stand with Lahainaluna students and families as they rebuild and move forward.”

UH Associate Vice President of Student Affairs Farrah-Marie Gomes agrees.

“For students navigating uncertainty, this kind of support is transformative,” added Gomes. “It reinforces that they are not alone, and that their community is invested in their education, their future and their sense of belonging.”

Restoring Maui’s fire-prone grasslands

Much of the former sugar plantation lands on Maui are now unmanaged and dominated by invasive species that increase fuel loads and have intensified the island’s wildfire risk. Several units at UH, including the University of �鶹��ý Economic Research Organization (UHERO) that is housed in UH ����ԴDz�’s College of Social Sciences, the Institute for Sustainability and Resilience, and the Ecosystems and Land Care Lab, will collaborate with a range of partners interested in fire risk reduction to turn vulnerability into stability.

The $2-million donation supports the collective effort that will build better understanding of the long-term benefits and costs of transitioning these lands, for the purposes of shaping land-use policy that supports multiple environmental and social objectives. It builds on existing support from the Bezos Maui Fund to restore the island’s watersheds and reduce wildfire risk.

“Insufficient investment in land care across former plantation lands has left large areas of Maui vulnerable to wildfire,” said Kimberly Burnett, a specialist with UHERO. “This work builds on evidence that actively managed lands, including forests, well-managed rangelands and agriculture, can significantly reduce fuel loads and support outcomes like erosion reduction, food production, biodiversity and community resilience.”

That land-based work is complemented by expanded educational access and reflects a holistic strategy for rebuilding—one that recognizes the interconnectedness of land, learning and long-term community well-being.

“We are profoundly grateful to our donors for their continued commitment to Maui,” said UH Foundation CEO and Vice President of Advancement Tim Dolan. “Their support is making a lasting difference for the people and places that define this community.”

�鶹��ý residents earn about average incomes for the U.S.—but that money doesn’t go nearly as far as it does in other parts of the country. After adjusting for the state’s sky-high cost of living, a new report from the (UHERO) shows that �鶹��ý’s wages and productivity have lagged the rest of the country for more than three decades, placing the state among the most economically distressed in the U.S.

The report, “Beyond the price of paradise: Is �鶹��ý being left behind?,” released on February 1, documents how �鶹��ý’s per-person GDP, income and productivity growth have stagnated since the early 1990s. On paper, �鶹��ý’s economy appears to perform roughly on par with the U.S. average. As a result, when residents feel economic distress, the blame is often placed almost entirely on the high cost of living.

However, once incomes are adjusted for local prices (the actual price of goods and services in �鶹��ý), �鶹��ý’s long-run trajectory also looks far weaker than previously understood. The report concludes that addressing the underlying weakness in the state’s economic path is at least as important—and perhaps more important—than addressing the cost of living itself.

“�鶹��ý’s tourism economy is regularly hit by short-term crises. But our analysis shows the state has also been facing a slow-moving crisis for more than 30 years,” said lead author and UHERO Assistant Professor Steven Bond-Smith. “Once we account for �鶹��ý’s high prices, the state looks increasingly similar to regions on the U.S. continent widely recognized as economically distressed, such as parts of Appalachia, the rural South and the Mississippi Delta where the lower cost of living cushions their lower earnings. But this type of economic distress is not just about the cost of living—it reflects decades of weak income and productivity growth.”

Key findings include:

• Real income growth in �鶹��ý has lagged the U.S. for more than three decades. When adjusted for local prices, �鶹��ý’s per-person GDP has grown on average at less than half the national rate since the early 1990s.
• The way residents experience �鶹��ý’s economy more closely resembles economically distressed states than high-income coastal regions. Using price-adjusted incomes, �鶹��ý ranks among the weakest-performing states in the country.
• Persistently low income growth threatens long-term economic sustainability. As �鶹��ý’s wages fall further behind the national average, it becomes increasingly difficult to fund public services, support local households and maintain the state’s quality of life.
• Fixing the cost of living alone will not solve the problem. Even if affordability improved, weak real income growth means the same pressures would return within a few years unless �鶹��ý’s productivity and income trajectory strengthen.

The UHERO report contends that �鶹��ý’s long-term stagnation warrants the same kind of attention often called for in distressed continental U.S. states, alongside the focus on the cost of living. Affordability remains essential, but the authors conclude that lifting �鶹��ý’s long-run income and productivity trajectory is equally, if not more critical for the state’s future. UHERO writes that revitalizing growth will require deliberate, well-designed policies that identify and remove barriers to diversification and innovation, supported by strong governance that emphasizes continuous monitoring, accountability and adaptation.

The full report is available on the .

UHERO is housed in UH ��ā�ԴDz�’s .

As artificial intelligence (AI) rapidly reshapes the workplace, new research from University of �鶹��ý at Mānoa economists finds that a college education continues to provide significant labor market advantages, including higher wages and greater adaptability, even as AI adoption accelerates.

The new blog by Steven Bond-Smith and Rachel Inafuku of the (UHERO) shows that jobs most exposed to AI are typically higher-paying, knowledge-intensive roles that are more likely to require a bachelor’s degree. In �鶹��ý, occupations with the highest levels of AI exposure have median annual wages exceeding $80,000, compared with less than $60,000 for jobs with the lowest exposure.

“AI is transforming the nature of work in uneven ways—raising productivity and skill demands in some sectors while leaving others heavily reliant on human labor—but not the relevance of higher education,” according to the UHERO blog. “Postsecondary education still opens doors to higher-paying, more adaptable careers, and that pattern holds in �鶹��ý as it does nationally.”

Contrary to concerns that AI will eliminate jobs that typically require a college degree, the research indicates that AI is more likely to change how work is performed rather than replace workers outright. AI tends to automate routine, standardized tasks while complementing roles that rely on judgment, problem-solving and decision-making—skills more common in college-educated occupations. As a result, AI adoption often increases productivity and can raise demand for workers who can effectively use these technologies.

In �鶹��ý, approximately 39,000 workers, or about 7% of total employment, are in occupations within the more lucrative top 10% of AI exposure, a smaller share than the national average of 11%. The difference reflects the state’s industry mix, which includes a larger share of tourism and service-sector jobs that tend to have lower AI exposure. A separate U.S. Treasury analysis similarly ranks �鶹��ý 32nd among states for AI exposure.

Productivity gains, stable employment

While overall employment effects from AI remain uncertain, research to date suggests limited net job losses. Studies show that productivity gains at AI-adopting firms often offset reductions in routine-task employment, leading to stable employment levels even as job tasks evolve.

At the same time, demand for AI-related skills is rising rapidly. Job postings listing AI skills have increased sharply nationwide and in �鶹��ý, particularly in professional, scientific and technical fields. This trend aligns with broader projections that education beyond high school will be required for roughly 70% of jobs in �鶹��ý by 2031.

“As technology continues to evolve, investing in higher education remains a reliable way to ensure workers can evolve with it,” according to the blog. “The challenge ahead is not whether education matters, but how institutions, employers and policymakers can align programs to prepare workers for the labor market in the AI era.”

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UHERO is housed in UH ��ā�ԴDz�’s .

�鶹��ý’s economy continues to edge into a mild recession, a tourism downturn is now underway, and job losses are anticipated in a number of sectors in 2026, according to the ’s (UHERO) fourth quarter forecast for 2025 released on December 12.

Inflation, while currently low, will rise next year as tariffs continue to pass through to consumer prices. Construction remains the one consistently strong sector, supported by major new federal contracts and ongoing housing and infrastructure needs.

Major takeaways of the December 12 report:

• Tourism in �鶹��ý has softened this year. Oʻahu has seen notable declines, while Maui continues its gradual recovery from the 2023 wildfires. International markets remain weak, with Canadian visitors down sharply. There has been a welcome recent uptick in the number of Japanese visitors, which nevertheless remains well below its pre-pandemic level. Visitor arrivals and average daily census are expected to decline in 2026 before recovering in 2027–28.
• �鶹��ý’s labor market shows clear signs of slowing. Job postings have fallen, opportunities have narrowed, and federal layoffs will continue into 2026. Still, unemployment remains low, and the overall cooling has been gradual. The upcoming minimum wage increase to $16 in 2026 will boost incomes for many lower-wage workers, but could create cost challenges for some employers.
• Inflation will build over the next year as tariffs continue to flow through to consumer prices, peaking around 3.5% in late 2026 before gradually easing. By 2027, Honolulu consumer prices will be about 1.5% higher than they would have been without recent tariff hikes, raising annual costs for a typical �鶹��ý household by about $1,400.
• The federal shutdown disrupted pay for many of �鶹��ý’s roughly 34,000 federal employees and caused SNAP and other federal programs to lapse as funds ran out. The state provided limited emergency assistance to cushion the gap in social programs, but the shutdown still reduced household spending and likely weakened visitor demand temporarily, adding short-term drag to the local economy. Some, but not all, of the shutdown-related spending hit will be reversed as federal workers receive back pay.
• Construction remains a rare bright spot. New federal projects, including an $8 billion Navy contract and progress on Aloha Stadium redevelopment, will keep construction employment near record levels through the decade’s end. This will help cushion the downturn but cannot fully offset weakness elsewhere in the economy.
• The U.S. economy strengthened in the third quarter as consumer spending rebounded, supported in part by strong stock market gains. But underlying conditions remain mixed: household budgets are stretched, long-term interest rates remain high, and the record-long federal government shutdown reduced income and delayed critical economic data. Job creation nationally has slowed sharply, and unemployment has risen. U.S. and global economic prospects remain relatively poor.

Overall, UHERO expects a mild recession in �鶹��ý followed by a weak recovery starting in 2026.

“Job and income losses will be real but limited in scale, with the greatest burdens falling on lower-income households and sectors tied to tourism and federal spending,” the UHERO forecast said. “Significant uncertainties remain—from trade policy and deportations to the ability of the Federal Reserve to steer the national economy—but prospects look somewhat better than they did earlier this year.”

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UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham provides a summary of the 2025 fourth quarter forecast report

UHERO is housed in UH ��ā�ԴDz�’s .

Two years after the 2023 Maui wildfires, many disabled residents remain far behind in rebuilding their homes, livelihoods, and health, according to a new report from the (UHERO).

UHERO’s study, , is the first comprehensive analysis of how the disaster affected disabled residents in Lahaina. Drawing on two large-scale surveys conducted between 2024 and 2025, the report shows that people with disabilities, both pre-existing and newly acquired after the disaster, continue to face disproportionate hardship two years after the fires.

“Disabled residents continue to face steep barriers to recovery, because systems and programs aren’t designed to include them,” said Daniela Bond-Smith, a research economist at UHERO who is the lead author on the report. “Recovery systems need to be inclusive—or they risk deepening existing inequities. But it’s also an opportunity to plan for a more inclusive and resilient future.”

Key findings

Housing: Fewer than half of disabled residents have secured permanent housing. Many remain in temporary or unstable living situations, and disabled renters are more reliant on rental assistance that may soon end.

Employment and Income: Working-age people with disabilities experienced sharper employment and income losses. A disproportionate number of disabled people exited the labor force, risking long-term exclusion from employment and earnings. Newly disabled people saw their household incomes fall by nearly half since the fires.

Health: Disabled people report greater physical and mental health challenges and more barriers to healthcare access than others.

Assistance and Unmet Needs: Disabled residents report higher unmet needs, from housing and healthcare to transportation and financial aid. More than one-quarter received no assistance at all in the last month.

Life Satisfaction: Despite widespread resilience, disabled people consistently report lower well-being and slower recovery progress.

Opportunities to close gap

The report finds that �Ჹ�ɲ���ʻ��’s current framework for disability inclusion in disaster preparedness and recovery is fragmented and largely non-binding. To close the gaps, the authors identify several steps that could make �Ჹ�ɲ���ʻ��’s recovery, and future disaster planning, more inclusive:

• Mainstreaming disability equity in disaster management as a cross-cutting principle, not a niche program, including explicit statutory requirements
• Updating and expanding �Ჹ�ɲ���ʻ��’s outdated disability preparedness plan to include recovery
• Setting measurable goals and data systems to monitor progress on disability inclusion at both the state and county levels
• Making disaster assistance fully accessible and expanding disability training for case managers and first responders
• Improving referrals to assistance and services for disabled residents by leveraging healthcare encounters
• Investing in accessible housing and healthcare, and expanding job programs that help disabled residents rejoin and remain in the workforce

The report serves as a resource for policymakers, service providers, and community leaders working to strengthen �Ჹ�ɲ���ʻ��’s disaster recovery systems and ensure that progress reaches everyone.

UHERO is housed in UH ����ԴDz�’s .