{"id":91396,"date":"2019-03-01T08:17:15","date_gmt":"2019-03-01T18:17:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=91396"},"modified":"2019-03-05T15:49:00","modified_gmt":"2019-03-06T01:49:00","slug":"uhero-state-forecast-update-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2019\/03\/01\/uhero-state-forecast-update-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"UHERO<\/abbr> state forecast update: Economy slows markedly. Is more in store?"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading time: <\/span> < 1<\/span> minute<\/span><\/span>

\"landscape<\/p>\n

The newest University of Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> Economic Research Organization<\/a> (UHERO<\/abbr>) report focuses on the impact of the federal tax cuts on Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n

UHERO<\/abbr> reports that Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s economy ended 2018 on a poorer footing than 2017. Across a number of dimensions, the year saw a flattening out or outright decline in activity. Tourism challenges were not limited to the aftermath of flood and fire, but also reflected weakening in some key markets and a falloff in spending. At home, population growth has been negative for the past two years, weighing on demand. Deceleration is now well established in the islands, posing significant downside risks to our forecast of continuing modest growth.<\/p>\n

Report highlights<\/h2>\n

The U.S. and world slide lower<\/strong>
\nSince the UHERO<\/abbr> fourth quarter report, external conditions facing Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> have worsened measurably<\/p>\n

And tourism turns<\/strong>
\nWith some month-to-month fluctuations, the number of visitor arrivals to Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> has been essentially flat since April, on a seasonally adjusted basis.<\/p>\n

The labor market cools a bit<\/strong>
\nAfter touching 2 percent in May, a record low, the unemployment rate edged up to 2.5 percent in December as employment receded a bit from midyear on.<\/p>\n

Construction holds together<\/strong>
\nConstruction employment stabilized last year, after edging downward in 2016–2017. <\/p>\n

Not so steady on?<\/strong>
\nThe fourth-quarter Annual Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> Forecast looked ahead to a gradual moderation of the business cycle expansion. This report takes a more downbeat view of economic prospects. <\/p>\n

For the full public summary go to the University of Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> Economic Research Organization website<\/a> and for a detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO<\/abbr>’s Forecast Project<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s economy ended 2018 on a poorer footing than 2017, and across a number of dimensions, the year saw a flattening out or outright decline in activity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[301,197,1363,9,343],"class_list":["post-91396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research","tag-college-of-social-sciences","tag-economics","tag-manoa-research","tag-uh-manoa","tag-uhero","entry","has-media"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91396"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91396\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91708,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91396\/revisions\/91708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}