{"id":88841,"date":"2018-12-17T15:07:59","date_gmt":"2018-12-18T01:07:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=88841"},"modified":"2018-12-17T15:07:59","modified_gmt":"2018-12-18T01:07:59","slug":"uhero-forecast-moderation-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2018\/12\/17\/uhero-forecast-moderation-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"<abbr title=\"University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization\">UHERO<\/abbr> forecast: Moderation ahead as business cycle matures"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> &lt; 1<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minute<\/span><\/span><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/manoa-uhero-forecast-honolulu.jpg\" alt=\"landscape of Honolulu harbor\" width=\"676\" height=\"381\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-80471\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/manoa-uhero-forecast-honolulu.jpg 676w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/manoa-uhero-forecast-honolulu-300x169.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 676px) 100vw, 676px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The newest <a href=\"http:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/\">University of <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> Economic Research Organization<\/a> (<abbr>UHERO<\/abbr>) report focuses on <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s record-high visitor numbers and record-low unemployment.<\/p>\n<p><abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> reports that the economy\u2019s rate of expansion has slowed as the business cycle has matured, and risks to the external environment have increased. But at present there are no signs of an imminent downturn. Instead, further growth at a restrained pace is the most likely outcome for the next few years at least.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The global economy is having its best year since 2011, boosted by the U.S. fiscal expansion, healthy labor markets, and high business and consumer confidence.<\/li>\n<li>The <abbr title=\"United States\">U.S.<\/abbr> economy will gradually slow from this year\u2019s tax-supported growth pickup. Canada and Mexico are benefiting from <abbr title=\"United States\">U.S.<\/abbr> strength, and progress on a <abbr title=\"North American Free Trade Agreement\">NAFTA<\/abbr> replacement reduces the chance of escalating trade tensions within the region.<\/li>\n<li>Despite significant local damage from natural disasters, <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s tourism industry is having another record year, supported by a strong global economy, abundant airline seats and ready access to non-traditional accommodations.<\/li>\n<li>The dominant <abbr title=\"United States\">U.S.<\/abbr> market will remain the main driver of visitor growth, but gains will slow after this year\u2019s strong showing.<\/li>\n<li>Departure of a large number of military personnel and dependents suppressed population growth last year. Demographic factors are gradually slowing the pace of labor force expansion, which will limit gains in nonfarm payrolls to just over half a percent per year.<\/li>\n<li>Growth in personal income has been lackluster, despite the record low unemployment rate. Because of the prevalence of lower-wage jobs, per-capita income is falling short of the national average, and income inequality has also risen.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For the <a href=\"http:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/products\/view\/613\">full public summary go to the <abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> website<\/a> and for a detailed analysis, subscribe to <a href=\"http:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/72\/subscription-form\"><abbr>UHERO<\/abbr>\u2019s Forecast Project<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The newest <abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> report focuses on <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s record-high visitor numbers and record-low unemployment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[301,197,9,343],"class_list":["post-88841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research","tag-college-of-social-sciences","tag-economics","tag-uh-manoa","tag-uhero","entry","has-media"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88841"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88841\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":88853,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88841\/revisions\/88853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}