{"id":226739,"date":"2025-12-12T00:01:29","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T10:01:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=226739"},"modified":"2025-12-11T14:47:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T00:47:04","slug":"uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Â鶹´«Ã½ faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg\" alt=\"coastline with large buildings\" width=\"676\" height=\"381\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-215592\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg 676w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook-130x73.jpg 130w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 676px) 100vw, 676px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"haw\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s economy continues to edge into a mild recession, a tourism downturn is now underway, and job losses are anticipated in a number of sectors in 2026, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/\">University of <span lang=\"haw\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> Economic Research Organization<\/a>\u2019s (<abbr>UHERO<\/abbr>) fourth quarter forecast for 2025 released on December 12.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation, while currently low, will rise next year as tariffs continue to pass through to consumer prices. Construction remains the one consistently strong sector, supported by major new federal contracts and ongoing housing and infrastructure needs.<\/p>\n<p>Major takeaways of the December 12 report:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tourism in <span lang=\"haw\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> has softened this year. <span lang=\"haw\">O&#699;ahu<\/span> has seen notable declines, while Maui continues its gradual recovery from the 2023 wildfires. International markets remain weak, with Canadian visitors down sharply. There has been a welcome recent uptick in the number of Japanese visitors, which nevertheless remains well below its pre-pandemic level. Visitor arrivals and average daily census are expected to decline in 2026 before recovering in 2027\u201328.<\/li>\n<li><span lang=\"haw\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s labor market shows clear signs of slowing. Job postings have fallen, opportunities have narrowed, and federal layoffs will continue into 2026. Still, unemployment remains low, and the overall cooling has been gradual. The upcoming minimum wage increase to $16 in 2026 will boost incomes for many lower-wage workers, but could create cost challenges for some employers.<\/li>\n<li>Inflation will build over the next year as tariffs continue to flow through to consumer prices, peaking around 3.5&#37; in late 2026 before gradually easing. By 2027, Honolulu consumer prices will be about 1.5&#37; higher than they would have been without recent tariff hikes, raising annual costs for a typical <span lang=\"haw\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> household by about $1,400.<\/li>\n<li>The federal shutdown disrupted pay for many of <span lang=\"haw\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s roughly 34,000 federal employees and caused <abbr title=\"Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program\">SNAP<\/abbr> and other federal programs to lapse as funds ran out. The state provided limited emergency assistance to cushion the gap in social programs, but the shutdown still reduced household spending and likely weakened visitor demand temporarily, adding short-term drag to the local economy. Some, but not all, of the shutdown-related spending hit will be reversed as federal workers receive back pay.<\/li>\n<li>Construction remains a rare bright spot. New federal projects, including an $8 billion Navy contract and progress on Aloha Stadium redevelopment, will keep construction employment near record levels through the decade\u2019s end. This will help cushion the downturn but cannot fully offset weakness elsewhere in the economy.<\/li>\n<li>The U.S. economy strengthened in the third quarter as consumer spending rebounded, supported in part by strong stock market gains. But underlying conditions remain mixed: household budgets are stretched, long-term interest rates remain high, and the record-long federal government shutdown reduced income and delayed critical economic data. Job creation nationally has slowed sharply, and unemployment has risen. U.S. and global economic prospects remain relatively poor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Overall, <abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> expects a mild recession in <span lang=\"haw\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> followed by a weak recovery starting in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Job and income losses will be real but limited in scale, with the greatest burdens falling on lower-income households and sectors tied to tourism and federal spending,&rdquo; the <abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> forecast said. &ldquo;Significant uncertainties remain&#8212;from trade policy and deportations to the ability of the Federal Reserve to steer the national economy&#8212;but prospects look somewhat better than they did earlier this year.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/?p=27217\">See the entire forecast on <abbr>UHERO<\/abbr>\u2019s website<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> Executive Director Carl Bonham provides a summary of the 2025 fourth quarter forecast report <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=UjZNzholGU4\">in this episode of &ldquo;<abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> Focus.&rdquo;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> is housed in <abbr title=\"University of Hawaii\">UH<\/abbr> M&#257;noa\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/socialsciences.manoa.hawaii.edu\/\">College of Social Sciences<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is <abbr>UHERO<\/abbr>&#8216;s fourth quarter forecast for 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":215592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[301,197,1467,1363,1600,1026,9,343],"class_list":["post-226739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research","tag-college-of-social-sciences","tag-economics","tag-manoa-excellence-in-research","tag-manoa-research","tag-public-impact-research","tag-social-science","tag-uh-manoa","tag-uhero","entry","has-media"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.0.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This is UHERO&#039;s fourth quarter forecast for 2025.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Â鶹´«Ã½News\"\/>\n\t<meta name=\"keywords\" content=\"university of hawaii,uh,hawaii university,hawaii higher education,hawaii college,hawaii,university of hawaii at manoa,uh manoa,uhm,manoa campus,manoa university,manoa college,hawaii mild recession,weak recovery 2026,uhero forecast,university of hawaii economic research organization,tourism downturn hawaii,job losses 2026,hawaii inflation,consumer prices,tariffs,hawaii construction sector,federal contracts,aloha stadium redevelopment,o\u02bbahu tourism decline,maui wildfire recovery,international visitor markets,canadian visitors,japanese visitors,labor market slowing,job postings fallen,federal layoffs,hawaii unemployment,minimum wage increase $16,honolulu consumer prices,household costs,federal shutdown impact,household spending,construction employment,$8 billion navy contract,us economy outlook,global economic prospects,lower income households,trade policy uncertainty,federal reserve,uh manoa college of social sciences,college of social sciences,economics,manoa excellence in research,manoa research,public impact research,social science,uhero\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 5.0.0.1\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"University of Hawai\u02bbi System News\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"blog\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hawai\u02bbi faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026 | University of Hawai\u02bbi System News\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is UHERO&#039;s fourth quarter forecast for 2025.\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"fb:admins\" content=\"73513078098\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:image:secure_url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"676\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"381\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Hawai\u02bbi faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026 | University of Hawai\u02bbi System News\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"This is UHERO&#039;s fourth quarter forecast for 2025.\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"aioseo-schema\">\n\t\t\t{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#article\",\"name\":\"Hawai\\u02bbi faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026 | University of Hawai\\u02bbi System News\",\"headline\":\"Â鶹´«Ã½ faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/author\\\/uh-news\\\/#author\"},\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/05\\\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg\",\"width\":676,\"height\":381,\"caption\":\"coastline with large buildings\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-12T00:01:29-10:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-11T14:47:04-10:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#webpage\"},\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#webpage\"},\"articleSection\":\"Research, College of Social Sciences, economics, Manoa Excellence in Research, Manoa research, Public Impact Research, social science, Â鶹´«Ã½Manoa, UHERO\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#breadcrumblist\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news#listItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/category\\\/research\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Research\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/category\\\/research\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Research\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/category\\\/research\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Â鶹´«Ã½ faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026\"},\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news#listItem\",\"name\":\"Home\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Â鶹´«Ã½ faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026\",\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/category\\\/research\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Research\"}}]},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"University of Hawaii News\",\"description\":\"News from the University of Hawaii\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/08\\\/system-seal.png\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#organizationLogo\",\"width\":260,\"height\":260,\"caption\":\"U H seal in System gold\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#organizationLogo\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/author\\\/uh-news\\\/#author\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/author\\\/uh-news\\\/\",\"name\":\"Â鶹´«Ã½News\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/\",\"name\":\"Hawai\\u02bbi faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026 | University of Hawai\\u02bbi System News\",\"description\":\"This is UHERO's fourth quarter forecast for 2025.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/#website\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#breadcrumblist\"},\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/author\\\/uh-news\\\/#author\"},\"creator\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/author\\\/uh-news\\\/#author\"},\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/05\\\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#mainImage\",\"width\":676,\"height\":381,\"caption\":\"coastline with large buildings\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/12\\\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\\\/#mainImage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-12T00:01:29-10:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-11T14:47:04-10:00\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/\",\"name\":\"University of Hawai\\u02bbi System News\",\"description\":\"News from the University of Hawaii\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hawaii.edu\\\/news\\\/#organization\"}}]}\n\t\t<\/script>\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO -->\n\n","aioseo_head_json":{"title":"Hawai\u02bbi faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026 | University of Hawai\u02bbi System News","description":"This is UHERO's fourth quarter forecast for 2025.","canonical_url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/","robots":"max-image-preview:large","keywords":"university of hawaii,uh,hawaii university,hawaii higher education,hawaii college,hawaii,university of hawaii at manoa,uh manoa,uhm,manoa campus,manoa university,manoa college,hawaii mild recession,weak recovery 2026,uhero forecast,university of hawaii economic research organization,tourism downturn hawaii,job losses 2026,hawaii inflation,consumer prices,tariffs,hawaii construction sector,federal contracts,aloha stadium redevelopment,o\u02bbahu tourism decline,maui wildfire recovery,international visitor markets,canadian visitors,japanese visitors,labor market slowing,job postings fallen,federal layoffs,hawaii unemployment,minimum wage increase $16,honolulu consumer prices,household costs,federal shutdown impact,household spending,construction employment,$8 billion navy contract,us economy outlook,global economic prospects,lower income households,trade policy uncertainty,federal reserve,uh manoa college of social sciences,college of social sciences,economics,manoa excellence in research,manoa research,public impact research,social science,uhero","webmasterTools":{"miscellaneous":""},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#article","name":"Hawai\u02bbi faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026 | University of Hawai\u02bbi System News","headline":"Â鶹´«Ã½ faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/author\/uh-news\/#author"},"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/#organization"},"image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg","width":676,"height":381,"caption":"coastline with large buildings"},"datePublished":"2025-12-12T00:01:29-10:00","dateModified":"2025-12-11T14:47:04-10:00","inLanguage":"en-US","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#webpage"},"isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#webpage"},"articleSection":"Research, College of Social Sciences, economics, Manoa Excellence in Research, Manoa research, Public Impact Research, social science, Â鶹´«Ã½Manoa, UHERO"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#breadcrumblist","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news#listItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/category\/research\/#listItem","name":"Research"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/category\/research\/#listItem","position":2,"name":"Research","item":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/category\/research\/","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#listItem","name":"Â鶹´«Ã½ faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026"},"previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news#listItem","name":"Home"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#listItem","position":3,"name":"Â鶹´«Ã½ faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026","previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/category\/research\/#listItem","name":"Research"}}]},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/#organization","name":"University of Hawaii News","description":"News from the University of Hawaii","url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/system-seal.png","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#organizationLogo","width":260,"height":260,"caption":"U H seal in System gold"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#organizationLogo"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/author\/uh-news\/#author","url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/author\/uh-news\/","name":"Â鶹´«Ã½News"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#webpage","url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/","name":"Hawai\u02bbi faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026 | University of Hawai\u02bbi System News","description":"This is UHERO's fourth quarter forecast for 2025.","inLanguage":"en-US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/#website"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#breadcrumblist"},"author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/author\/uh-news\/#author"},"creator":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/author\/uh-news\/#author"},"image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#mainImage","width":676,"height":381,"caption":"coastline with large buildings"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/#mainImage"},"datePublished":"2025-12-12T00:01:29-10:00","dateModified":"2025-12-11T14:47:04-10:00"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/","name":"University of Hawai\u02bbi System News","description":"News from the University of Hawaii","inLanguage":"en-US","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/#organization"}}]},"og:locale":"en_US","og:site_name":"University of Hawai\u02bbi System News","og:type":"blog","og:title":"Hawai\u02bbi faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026 | University of Hawai\u02bbi System News","og:description":"This is UHERO's fourth quarter forecast for 2025.","og:url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/12\/uhero-fourth-quarter-forecast-2025\/","fb:admins":"73513078098","og:image":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg","og:image:secure_url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg","og:image:width":"676","og:image:height":"381","twitter:card":"summary","twitter:title":"Hawai\u02bbi faces mild recession, weak recovery in 2026 | University of Hawai\u02bbi System News","twitter:description":"This is UHERO's fourth quarter forecast for 2025.","twitter:image":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"226739","title":null,"description":"#post_excerpt","keywords":[{"label":"University of Hawaii","value":"University of Hawaii"},{"label":"UH","value":"UH"},{"label":"Hawaii university","value":"Hawaii university"},{"label":"Hawaii higher education","value":"Hawaii higher education"},{"label":"Hawaii college","value":"Hawaii college"},{"label":"Hawaii","value":"Hawaii"},{"label":"University of Hawaii at Manoa","value":"University of Hawaii at Manoa"},{"label":"Â鶹´«Ã½Manoa","value":"Â鶹´«Ã½Manoa"},{"label":"UHM","value":"UHM"},{"label":"Manoa campus","value":"Manoa campus"},{"label":"Manoa university","value":"Manoa university"},{"label":"Manoa college","value":"Manoa college"},{"label":"Hawaii mild recession","value":"Hawaii mild recession"},{"label":"weak recovery 2026","value":"weak recovery 2026"},{"label":"UHERO forecast","value":"UHERO forecast"},{"label":"University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization","value":"University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization"},{"label":"tourism downturn Hawaii","value":"tourism downturn Hawaii"},{"label":"job losses 2026","value":"job losses 2026"},{"label":"Hawaii inflation","value":"Hawaii inflation"},{"label":"consumer prices","value":"consumer prices"},{"label":"tariffs","value":"tariffs"},{"label":"Hawaii construction sector","value":"Hawaii construction sector"},{"label":"federal contracts","value":"federal contracts"},{"label":"Aloha Stadium redevelopment","value":"Aloha Stadium redevelopment"},{"label":"O\u02bbahu tourism decline","value":"O\u02bbahu tourism decline"},{"label":"Maui wildfire recovery","value":"Maui wildfire recovery"},{"label":"international visitor markets","value":"international visitor markets"},{"label":"Canadian visitors","value":"Canadian visitors"},{"label":"Japanese visitors","value":"Japanese visitors"},{"label":"labor market slowing","value":"labor market slowing"},{"label":"job postings fallen","value":"job postings fallen"},{"label":"federal layoffs","value":"federal layoffs"},{"label":"Hawaii unemployment","value":"Hawaii unemployment"},{"label":"minimum wage increase $16","value":"minimum wage increase $16"},{"label":"Honolulu consumer prices","value":"Honolulu consumer prices"},{"label":"household costs","value":"household costs"},{"label":"federal shutdown impact","value":"federal shutdown impact"},{"label":"household spending","value":"household spending"},{"label":"construction employment","value":"construction employment"},{"label":"$8 billion Navy contract","value":"$8 billion Navy contract"},{"label":"US economy outlook","value":"US economy outlook"},{"label":"global economic prospects","value":"global economic prospects"},{"label":"lower income households","value":"lower income households"},{"label":"trade policy uncertainty","value":"trade policy uncertainty"},{"label":"Federal Reserve","value":"Federal Reserve"},{"label":"Â鶹´«Ã½Manoa College of Social Sciences","value":"Â鶹´«Ã½Manoa College of Social Sciences"}],"keyphrases":{"focus":{"keyphrase":"","score":0,"analysis":{"keyphraseInTitle":{"score":0,"maxScore":9,"error":1}}},"additional":[]},"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"featured","og_image_url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg","og_image_width":"676","og_image_height":"381","og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":"","og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":null,"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"Article","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":"-1","robots_max_videopreview":"-1","robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":"default","location":null,"local_seo":null,"breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"ai":{"faqs":[],"keyPoints":[],"titles":[],"descriptions":[],"socialPosts":{"email":[],"linkedin":[],"twitter":[],"facebook":[],"instagram":[]}},"created":"2025-12-10 22:09:38","updated":"2025-12-12 00:47:04","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null,"focus_keyword":null,"additional_keywords":null,"truseo_locale":null},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/manoa-uhero-quarter-two-outlook.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226739","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=226739"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226739\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":226769,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226739\/revisions\/226769"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/215592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=226739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=226739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=226739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}