{"id":210071,"date":"2025-02-02T09:00:48","date_gmt":"2025-02-02T19:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=210071"},"modified":"2025-02-14T15:09:28","modified_gmt":"2025-02-15T01:09:28","slug":"uh-telescope-discovers-historic-asteroid-that-may-strike-the-earth-in-2032","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/02\/02\/uh-telescope-discovers-historic-asteroid-that-may-strike-the-earth-in-2032\/","title":{"rendered":"UH<\/abbr> telescope discovers historic asteroid that may strike the Earth in 2032"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>
\"Asteroid
Illustration of a small asteroid moving past Earth (image credit: Space.com)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A University of Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>-operated telescope has discovered a fairly large asteroid that may impact the Earth. The historic asteroid, 2024 YR4<\/abbr>, was first detected by UH<\/abbr>\u2019s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System<\/a> (ATLAS) in December 2024 as it flew past the Earth. Estimated to be the size of a 20-story building, the asteroid is currently 27 million miles away and returns to Earth\u2019s vicinity every 4 years. While it is expected to safely pass Earth in 2028, scientists warn that a collision in December 2032 remains a possibility.<\/p>\n

\"black
Observations captured by ATLAS<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

NASA\u2019s Center for Near Earth Object Studies<\/a> estimates a 1% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4<\/abbr> could collide with Earth in 2032, based on current observations. Throughout the coming months, astronomers will closely monitor the 180-foot (55-meter)-wide object to refine its orbit and improve predictions of its future trajectory. No asteroid of this size has ever reached a 1% impact probability in the past two decades of near-Earth object tracking, making 2024 YR4<\/abbr> a rare and closely watched case.<\/p>\n

While the odds of impact remain low, history has shown that even small asteroids can cause significant destruction. In 2013, a 65-foot (20-meter) asteroid exploded over Russia, unleashing a shock wave that shattered windows in 7,200 buildings across six cities. More than a century earlier, in 1908, an asteroid roughly the size of 2024 YR4<\/abbr> detonated over Tunguska, Siberia, flattening trees across nearly 1,000 square miles. Though scientists estimate a 99% chance that 2024 YR4<\/abbr> will safely miss Earth in 2032, its potential for impact—especially over populated areas—has drawn the close attention of the planetary defense community.<\/p>\n

“Tiny asteroids do hit the Earth all the time, disintegrating in the atmosphere as fireballs; fortunately small ones cause little damage on the ground,” said Larry Denneau, an astronomer at UH<\/abbr> Institute for Astronomy<\/a> (IfA<\/abbr>) and co-principal investigator at ATLAS. “Larger asteroids can cause much more damage, but they impact the Earth much less frequently. There are still many large ones out there that we haven\u2019t found yet, which is why we are continuously monitoring the whole sky to ensure that we stay ahead of potential threats.”<\/p>\n

\"Telescope
The NASA<\/abbr> Infrared Telescope Facility telescope on Maunakea during a lunar eclipse.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> telescopes monitoring<\/h2>\n

Observatories on Maunakea and Haleakal\u0101 are actively tracking 2024 YR4<\/abbr> to refine its trajectory. In 2022, UH<\/abbr> was instrumental in helping track NASA\u2019s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) target asteroid system, the first successful asteroid deflection mission, proving that with enough time, an asteroid\u2019s path can be altered to protect Earth.<\/p>\n