{"id":136626,"date":"2021-03-05T02:00:16","date_gmt":"2021-03-05T12:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=136626"},"modified":"2021-03-04T11:56:41","modified_gmt":"2021-03-04T21:56:41","slug":"economic-recovery-under-right-conditions-uhero-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2021\/03\/05\/economic-recovery-under-right-conditions-uhero-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic recovery will strengthen, under right conditions, UHERO<\/abbr> forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

\"scenic<\/p>\n

While Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s economy experienced a severe downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a reduction in the number of positive COVID-19 cases and more U.S. mainland and Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> residents getting vaccinated are likely to strengthen the visitor industry and broader local economy as the year progresses. That\u2019s according to the latest University of Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> Economic Research Organization<\/a> (UHERO<\/abbr>) forecast for the state.<\/p>\n

“Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> has managed the COVID-19 pandemic better than many, if not all, other states,” the report stated. “This reflects Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s ability to almost completely shut itself off in the early stages of the pandemic, but we were also successful in tamping down a summer surge. After a holiday pickup, virus numbers have trended downward to their lowest level since July.“<\/p>\n

UHERO<\/abbr> says that while full recovery to pre-COVID-19 pandemic employment is still several years away, an accelerated pace of job recovery is expected to build this year.<\/p>\n

There is still concern with struggling businesses and economic damage to lower-income households. “Professional workers have been able to continue to work remotely, while many lower-income households are dependent on the face-to-face services that have been hardest hit,” UHERO<\/abbr> said. “This has led to disproportionate economic hardship for these families.”<\/p>\n

Tourism industry<\/h2>\n

UHERO<\/abbr> predicts U.S. tourism to gain momentum into the summer and fall as COVID-19 case counts drop and vaccination rates rise nationally. International markets, however, are expected to lag. UHERO<\/abbr>\u2019s baseline forecast estimates that “arrivals recover half their pandemic losses by July, and visitor spending recovers nearly 70% of its losses by year end. Full recovery is still several years out.”<\/p>\n

Optimism ahead<\/h2>\n

The strength of Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s economic recovery is contingent upon a continued reduction in positive COVID-19 cases, a gradual end to social distancing, the extent to which businesses can stay afloat and an uptick in visitor arrivals and spending.<\/p>\n

UHERO<\/abbr> offers an optimistic local outlook if vaccinations surge by summer in the U.S. and international markets, and spending increases from the coming fiscal stimulus and pent-up demand. A slowdown in vaccinations, another rise in COVID-19 cases, a decrease in employment prospects and\/or more business failing would result in delayed economic recovery.<\/p>\n

Visit UHERO<\/abbr>\u2019s website for the entire report<\/a>.<\/p>\n

UHERO is housed in UH<\/abbr> M\u0101noa\u2019s College of Social Sciences<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This work is an example of UH<\/abbr> M\u0101noa\u2019s goal of Excellence in Research: Advancing the Research and Creative Work Enterprise<\/a> (PDF<\/abbr><\/span>), one of four goals identified in the 2015–25 Â鶹´«Ã½<\/a> (PDF<\/abbr><\/span>), updated in December 2020.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

UHERO<\/abbr> is optimistic if vaccinations surge and spending increases.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[301,1411,1417,197,1467,1363,1026,9,343],"class_list":["post-136626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research","tag-college-of-social-sciences","tag-covid-19","tag-covid-19-research","tag-economics","tag-manoa-excellence-in-research","tag-manoa-research","tag-social-science","tag-uh-manoa","tag-uhero","entry","has-media"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136626","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=136626"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136626\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":136631,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136626\/revisions\/136631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=136626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=136626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=136626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}