{"id":125294,"date":"2020-08-18T08:38:55","date_gmt":"2020-08-18T18:38:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=125294"},"modified":"2020-08-31T10:19:48","modified_gmt":"2020-08-31T20:19:48","slug":"control-covid19-curve-dont-crush-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2020\/08\/18\/control-covid19-curve-dont-crush-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Control COVID-19 curve, don\u2019t crush it, <abbr title=\"University of Hawaii\">UH<\/abbr> research says"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span><div class=\"responsive-video-wrap-post\"><figure class=\"wp-block-embed wp-block-embed-youtube is-type-video is-provider-youtube epyt-figure\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><div class=\"epyt-video-wrapper\"><iframe  id=\"_ytid_67073\"  width=\"620\" height=\"380\"  data-origwidth=\"620\" data-origheight=\"380\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/8OvR86UNQYQ?enablejsapi=1&origin=https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu&rel=0&autoplay=0&cc_load_policy=0&cc_lang_pref=&iv_load_policy=1&loop=0&fs=1&playsinline=0&autohide=2&theme=dark&color=red&controls=1&disablekb=0&\" class=\"__youtube_prefs__  no-lazyload\" title=\"COVID-19-Controlling the Curve\"  allow=\"fullscreen; accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen data-no-lazy=\"1\" data-skipgform_ajax_framebjll=\"\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div><\/figure><\/div>\n<p>A proactive targeted approach of aggressive COVID-19 testing and contact tracing to create a more sustainable solution over a long-term period is recommended by new University of <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> at M\u0101noa research. A team of experts led by <a href=\"https:\/\/math.hawaii.edu\/wordpress\/\">Department of Mathematics<\/a> Professor <strong>Monique Chyba<\/strong> created the mathematical model. This project is funded by a one year, $199,000 grant from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nsf.gov\/\">National Science Foundation<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Chyba recommends ramping up testing and contact tracing when changes occur, such as when students return to schools, businesses welcome back customers with reduced restrictions and when the state eventually reopens to tourism.<\/p>\n<p>The mathematical approach was formed with the premise that COVID-19 will likely never disappear in <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>; it is a matter of controlling it. The targeted approach is key to avoid a complete lockdown and save the economy.<\/p>\n<p>It takes into account the number of reported daily cases, probabilities on when those diagnosed with COVID-19 will become symptomatic after being exposed and possible hospitalizations, probabilities asymptomatic COVID-19 cases will be detected through contact tracing, and past government mitigation efforts, such as a statewide lockdown.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/manoa-math-covid-curve.jpg\" alt=\"line graph detailing covid19 projections\" width=\"676\" height=\"469\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-125339\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/manoa-math-covid-curve.jpg 676w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/manoa-math-covid-curve-300x208.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/manoa-math-covid-curve-130x90.jpg 130w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 676px) 100vw, 676px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;This is an optimal control problem. By controlling mitigation measures such as travelers\u2019 quarantine and the amount of testing and contact tracing, we can bring the curve to a desired state,&rdquo; said Chyba, who is also a member of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hipam.org\/\"><span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> Pandemic Applied Modeling work group<\/a>. &ldquo;An exponential decay is not the long term solution, it must be done in a more gradual manner.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>According to the model, the targeted approach could result in a 35 percent reduction of daily COVID-19 cases in <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> on September 22 from the numbers on August 6. That means we would be under 100 cases on September 22, if this targeted approach is followed. This considers improved overall contact tracing, the effects of beach and park closures, and students returning to school in person. Then, strategic targeted approaches would continue to bring the curve lower.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The downside of this approach is that it takes longer, and I understand that it comes with consequences, but we might not have a choice at this point,&rdquo; Chyba said. &ldquo;We went from the lowest count to one of the highest percentage increases in the nation. We have to accept that there will be waves. Let us control them actively and not after the fact.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Chyba\u2019s team also created <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=8OvR86UNQYQ&#038;feature=youtu.be\">a video to illustrate its targeted approach<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Project team<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_125299\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-125299\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/manoa-mathematics-covid19-modeling-team-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"10 people on Zoom screens\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-125299\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/manoa-mathematics-covid19-modeling-team-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/manoa-mathematics-covid19-modeling-team-130x73.jpg 130w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/manoa-mathematics-covid19-modeling-team.jpg 676w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-125299\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Monique Chyba&#8217;s COVID-19 modeling team<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The project\u2019s principal investigators are Chyba, Associate Professor <strong>Yuriy Mileyko<\/strong> and <strong>Alice Koniges<\/strong>, a computational scientist at the Maui High Performance Computing Center. <abbr title=\"University of Hawaii\">UH<\/abbr> graduate students <strong>Richard (Trey) Carney<\/strong> and <strong>Christopher Gray<\/strong>; undergraduate mathematics students Elizabeth Swantek and Alan Tong; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.phys.hawaii.edu\/\">Department of Physics and Astronomy<\/a> retired associate researcher <strong>Michael Jones<\/strong>; and <abbr>UH<\/abbr> mathematics major <strong>Zain Jabbar<\/strong>, <abbr title=\"University of California at Los Angeles\">UCLA<\/abbr> student Victoria Kala and high school student Katie Guo, under the supervision of Koniges, have all contributed to the project\u2019s research.<\/p>\n<p>Related <em><abbr>UH<\/abbr> News<\/em> stories:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2020\/08\/07\/virtual-symposium-record-participants\/\">Virtual symposium draws record number of participants<\/a>, August 7, 2020<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2020\/07\/01\/can-covid-19-be-predicted-in-hawaii\/\">Can the spread of COVID-19 be predicted in <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>?<\/a>, July 1, 2020<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.uhfoundation.org\/give\/giving-opportunity\/covid-19\">Support the <abbr>UH<\/abbr> Student Relief fund and COVID-19 research<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>&#8212;By Mark Arakaki<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Researchers recommend increasing testing and contact tracing when policy changes occur, such as when schools and businesses re-open.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[1411,1417,1363,554,124,545,9,56],"class_list":["post-125294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research","tag-covid-19","tag-covid-19-research","tag-manoa-research","tag-mathematics","tag-physics","tag-physics-and-astronomy","tag-uh-manoa","tag-video-2","entry","has-media"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125294","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=125294"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125294\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":126175,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125294\/revisions\/126175"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=125294"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=125294"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=125294"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}