{"id":122935,"date":"2020-07-16T16:12:36","date_gmt":"2020-07-17T02:12:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=122935"},"modified":"2024-02-23T07:50:19","modified_gmt":"2024-02-23T17:50:19","slug":"tool-helps-forecast-covid19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2020\/07\/16\/tool-helps-forecast-covid19\/","title":{"rendered":"UH<\/abbr>-developed tool helps forecast COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>
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COVID-19 cumulative cases forecast on July 16<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

An innovative COVID-19 forecasting tool, developed by University of Hawai\u02bbi<\/span> researchers, aims to assist experts to model potential COVID-19 effects on the State of Hawai\u02bbi<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Baseem Missaghi<\/strong>, a software developer at UH<\/abbr>\u2019s Applied Research Laboratory<\/a>, created the web application in partnership with the Hawai\u02bbi<\/span> Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group and others. It utilizes data on historical COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, fatalities, recoveries and active cases. The tool provides a two-week forecast and examines possible scenarios for COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and fatalities. Missaghi said the customizability is most valuable for experts.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe scenario tool doesn\u2019t predict how many cases Hawai\u02bbi<\/span> will have in two weeks, rather it helps Hawai\u02bbi<\/span>\u2019s epidemiologists tweak various parameters that allow them to visualize what the future state of Hawai\u02bbi<\/span> might be,\u201d Missaghi said. \u201cWith this information, we can be more prepared for hospital overflow and ICU<\/abbr> capacity.\u201d<\/p>\n

Along with medical professionals, Missaghi hopes the modeling will help inform policy decisions such as quarantine orders and travel restrictions.<\/p>\n

Foundation of the model<\/h2>\n

Missaghi worked closely with Thomas Lee<\/strong>, an Office of Public Health Studies<\/a> assistant professor, to develop the forecasting tool based on an open-source tool from Switzerland’s University of Basel. The tool utilizes the SEIR<\/abbr> (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) model, which is based off of the following progressive factors: susceptible individuals are exposed through contact with infectious individuals; exposed individuals progress to a symptomatic state; infectious individuals recover or experience more severe symptoms; and severely sick individuals either recover or their condition worsens.<\/p>\n

\u201cSeveral online tools exist that incorporate the SEIR<\/abbr> model, however, what we did was take those tools and customize it for Hawai\u02bbi<\/span> to support Hawai\u02bbi<\/span>\u2014applying the lessons from around the world and also factoring in Hawai\u02bbi<\/span>\u2019s unique circumstances,\u201d Missaghi said.<\/p>\n