{"id":122727,"date":"2020-07-14T17:16:58","date_gmt":"2020-07-15T03:16:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=122727"},"modified":"2020-07-16T14:04:03","modified_gmt":"2020-07-17T00:04:03","slug":"uhero-forecasts-troubling-outlook-workforce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2020\/07\/14\/uhero-forecasts-troubling-outlook-workforce\/","title":{"rendered":"UHERO<\/abbr> forecasts troubling outlook for Hawai\u02bbi\u2019s workforce"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

\"scenic<\/p>\n

Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, University of Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> Economic Research Organization<\/a> (UHERO<\/abbr>) researchers estimate that the state\u2019s total employment rate, as well as its unemployment rate, will not return to its pre-pandemic level until 2029, putting the attention on social safety net programs, and job re-training and education programs.<\/p>\n

According to a new UHERO<\/abbr> report, the state\u2019s unemployment rate was one of the lowest in the U.S. a year ago, and its underemployment rate was near the national average. Now, both rates are significantly higher.<\/p>\n

UHERO<\/abbr> researchers in UH<\/abbr> M\u0101noa\u2019s College of Social Sciences<\/a> said Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s unemployment rate in 2019 was 2.8 percent, the sixth lowest nationwide. However, it\u2019s “U-6<\/abbr>” rate, the broadest measure of underemployment, was about 7 percent, with just 23 other states having a lower U-6<\/abbr> rate. The U-6<\/abbr> rate factors in those who are unemployed, with residents who are employed part-time who would rather work full-time, and those who are neither working nor currently looking for a job but say they want and are available for a job.<\/p>\n

COVID-19 workforce effects<\/h2>\n

In March 2020, before the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were felt in the state, the unemployment rate was 2.4 percent. In April, the rate climbed to 23.8 percent and dropped slightly to 22.6 percent in May.<\/p>\n

To compare the current situation with the Great Recession of 2007–09, UHERO<\/abbr> analyzed Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS<\/abbr>) data and discovered that while the unemployment rate jumped by about 3 percent from 2008–10, there was a large spike in the number of involuntary part-time workers from 24,600 to 51,400 during the same period. These residents are still counted as employed, however, while they still held onto their jobs, many reluctantly settled for part-time employment.<\/p>\n

UHERO<\/abbr> recommends analyzing the BLS<\/abbr>\u2019s labor underutilization statistics and not just the unemployment rate to gain a complete understanding of Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s workforce situation. UHERO<\/abbr> said after the Great Recession—which did not have travel quarantines, business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders—employment in Â鶹´«Ã½<\/span> did not return to pre-recession levels until 2014.<\/p>\n

View the full report on UHERO<\/abbr>\u2019s website<\/a>.<\/p>\n