  {"id":114746,"date":"2020-03-31T12:07:19","date_gmt":"2020-03-31T22:07:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=114746"},"modified":"2020-06-19T16:29:37","modified_gmt":"2020-06-20T02:29:37","slug":"painful-strike-to-hawaii-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2020\/03\/31\/painful-strike-to-hawaii-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"<abbr title=\"University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization\">UHERO<\/abbr> forecasts &lsquo;painful&rsquo; strike to Hawai\u02bbi economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span><p><ins datetime=\"2020-03-31T21:54:13+00:00\"><figure id=\"attachment_114791\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-114791\" style=\"width: 676px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/manoa-covid-waikiki-2.jpg\" alt=\"Waikiki beach and Duke statue\" width=\"676\" height=\"381\" class=\"size-full wp-image-114791\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/manoa-covid-waikiki-2.jpg 676w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/manoa-covid-waikiki-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/manoa-covid-waikiki-2-130x73.jpg 130w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 676px) 100vw, 676px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-114791\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(Photo credit: <span aria-label=\"Hawaii,\">Âé¶¹´«Ã½<\/span> Tourism Authority)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\">University of <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Âé¶¹´«Ã½<\/span> Economic Research Organization<\/a> (<abbr>UHERO<\/abbr>) on March 30, provided a grim update to its forecast of <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Âé¶¹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s economy that includes recent developments associated with the novel coronavirus pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>Since the <a href=\"https:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/interim-forecast-update-covid-19-will-impose-significant-economic-impacts-in-hawaii\/\">interim forecast update released on March 10<\/a>, the <abbr title=\"coronavirus 2019\">COVID-19<\/abbr> disease has spread even more globally, and has exploded nationally with the <abbr title=\"United States\">U.S.<\/abbr> leading the world in detected cases. Businesses in many communities have largely shut down, either because of falling demand or stay-at-home regulations. Those rules are now in place in many communities and states, with no clear indication of when it will be safe to lift them.<\/p>\n<h2><span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Âé¶¹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s economic impact<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_114789\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-114789\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/manoa-covid-waikiki-beach-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"empty waikiki beach\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-114789\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/manoa-covid-waikiki-beach-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/manoa-covid-waikiki-beach-130x73.jpg 130w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/manoa-covid-waikiki-beach-630x353.jpg 630w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/manoa-covid-waikiki-beach.jpg 676w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-114789\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(Photo credit: <span aria-label=\"Hawaii,\">Âé¶¹´«Ã½<\/span> Tourism Authority)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Âé¶¹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s tourism industry has been deliberately shut down to try to isolate the islands from additional transmission from outside the state.<\/p>\n<p>According to the <abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> report, &ldquo;While it is too early to assess the full impact of these dramatic actions on <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Âé¶¹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s economy, it is clear that they will be sharp and painful. The clearest indication of this pain is the surge of 80,000 new unemployment claims so far in March. Job counts will fall precipitously in industries tied to tourism and local activities now banned by the stay-at-home order. Other industries will suffer from the general decline in spending.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>By the second quarter, <abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> expects the non-farm job count to fall by more than 140,000 from its recent peak, a roughly 20 percent year-over-year decline.<\/li>\n<li>Losses to income will be somewhat less severe, because of enhanced unemployment benefits and the direct payments to U.S. residents included in the recent federal recovery legislation, but they will still be historically large. <\/li>\n<li>Real personal income will fall about 5 percent by the fourth quarter. With a strong start to the year pre-virus and some recovery expected to commence by late spring and early summer, annual figures will show less severe drops.<\/li>\n<li>The job count will average 11 percent lower than 2019 for the year as a whole, and real income will be more than 3 percent lower. <\/li>\n<li>Visitor arrivals for the year will be down an astounding 41 percent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/interim-forecast-update-hawaiis-economy-is-shut-down-to-deal-with-covid-19\/\">For a full public summary, go to the <abbr>UHERO<\/abbr> website.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.uhfoundation.org\/give\/giving-opportunity\/covid-19\">Support the <abbr>UH<\/abbr> Student Relief fund and COVID-19 research<\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/ins><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On March 30, <abbr title=\"University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization\">UHERO<\/abbr> provided a grim update to its forecast of <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Âé¶¹´«Ã½<\/span>\u2019s economy that includes recent developments associated with the novel coronavirus pandemic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[301,1411,1417,197,1363,74,9,343],"class_list":["post-114746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research","tag-college-of-social-sciences","tag-covid-19","tag-covid-19-research","tag-economics","tag-manoa-research","tag-tourism","tag-uh-manoa","tag-uhero","entry","has-media"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114746","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114746"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114746\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":121195,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114746\/revisions\/121195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114746"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114746"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114746"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}