This column written by University of �鶹��ý at ����ԴDz�’s , an urban and regional planning professor and chair of the Honolulu Climate Change Commission, and , associate dean of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology and vice chair of the commission, ran in the . The commission gathers the latest science and information on climate change impacts to �鶹��ý to provide policy recommendations to the mayor, City Council and city departments.

Prior to Hurricane Lane making a run at our island, the city’s Honolulu Climate Change Commission officially released two documents describing the impact of a warmer world.

The first, Climate Change Brief, lays out the trajectory of the climate threat, and the risks to Oʻahu. The second, Sea Level Rise Guidance, explains the projected impact and timeline of rising seas around Oʻahu, and makes recommendations for action:

• Plan for 3.2 feet (1 meter) of sea level rise by the end of the century, with the potential for 6 feet (1.8 meter) of rise if we don’t radically reduce global carbon emissions now.
• Plan for disruptive high tide flooding by mid-century.

High-tide flooding causes storm drains to back-flow onto roads, the water table to rise through the ground, and rain to pond and flood. Beaches erode, waves reach into homes, and coastal roads are overwashed and undermined. We began to see such effects during the summer 2017 “king tides.”

The commission recommends taking key actions now to be as prepared as possible when large impacts arrive. We appreciate the quick action by Mayor Kirk Caldwell, who issued a formal directive in July to all city departments and agencies in direct response to our recommendations.

We also appreciate the many city departments that came to testify in front of our commission with their plans and actions. Among them: the Honolulu Board of Water Supply, which has initiated a climate adaptation plan; the Department of Facility Maintenance, which is evaluating storm water solutions; the Department of Environmental Services with concerns about wastewater treatment; the Department of Planning and Permitting with worries about coastal erosion and adapting for sea level rise; and, HART, which has pro-actively studied sea level rise and made recommendations about raising station areas and critical infrastructure to avoid future flood levels.

While our kuleana is to inform the city, the reality is that climate change threatens all of �鶹��ý’s beaches, coastal communities and shoreline infrastructure, including airports, harbors and roads.

With rising seas, beaches will migrate landward. If this migration is not allowed, beaches will disappear. Infrastructure will be flooded, stressing their engineered capacity, and we must make tough decisions as a community to determine what investments can and should be made, and where.

What is already clear: sea level rise has made many of our current policies and assumptions around shoreline development out of date. Our coastal communities were and continue to be designed and built for a climate and ocean level that no longer exists. For the health and survival of our natural resources, including beaches, and the safety of people and structures, this must change.

The negative impacts of climate change poised to hit Oʻahu — drought, flooding, sea level rise, heat stress, disease, and yes, larger and more powerful hurricanes approaching along new pathways — can be reduced. The faster we and the globe eliminate fossil fuels from the economy, the less adaptation we and our children will endure over coming decades.

Ask yourself, “What can I do to increase sustainability and resiliency in �鶹��ý?” Some suggestions:

• Reduce your consumption and waste.
• Decarbonize your travel: drive and fly less, choose mass transit or take up biking.
• Decarbonize your diet with more locally grown vegetables.
• Serve the community: Help plant trees and remove invasive species, adopt a beach or park, join a community service organization.
• Use your vote to position legislation and policies to make Oʻahu a climate-ready community.
• Communicate concern about climate change with others.

We are fortunate to live in a state where the science of climate change is accepted and generally understood. Let’s take advantage of this awareness, and our collaborative spirit, to catch-up on climate change.

We need to eliminate dangerous fossil fuels, plan for more frequent and intense weather hazards, and adapt to sea level rise. Now is the time for new policies and behaviors to protect our most treasured places.

Related UH News stories:

• UH-led Honolulu commission issues sea-level and climate-change guidance, July 16, 2018
• UH experts appointed to city climate change commission, January 31, 2018

By including models of dynamical physical processes such as erosion and wave run-up, a team of researchers from the and the state determined that �鶹��ý land areas vulnerable to future sea-level rise may be double what was previously estimated.

The .

“It’s important that we identify land areas vulnerable to sea level-related hazards because, if left unmanaged, flooding, wave inundation and erosion will continue to encroach upon coastal lands that are typically heavily developed,” said , study co-author and associate dean and earth sciences professor at the UH ����ԴDz� (SOEST). “Preparing for these effects will be very costly and take a long time to implement. With these results, stakeholders of all types are now able to establish empirically based adaptation policies.”

Previously, a widely used approach for assessing impacts of sea level rise was the “bathtub” model, in which a static sea-level surface is projected onto a terrain model.

“The bathtub method provides a good first look at low-lying flood-prone areas, but underestimates the full extent of potential damage due to sea level rise, particularly on �鶹��ý‘s high-energy coasts,” said lead researcher , a faculty member in the at SOEST.

As sea level rises, several processes are at work. Coastal erosion results in permanent land loss, but is also essential for preserving beaches; annual wave flooding rapidly escalates past a critical point; and groundwater inundation and storm-drain backflow create new wetlands and cause urban flooding. These render coastal protection insufficient as an adaptation strategy.

Developing a more realistic prediction

“Our more comprehensive assessment reveals important realities that can be overlooked with other methods,” said Fletcher. “Critically, the ‘bathtub’ approach alone ignores 35–54 percent of the total land area exposed to one or more of these hazards, depending on location and sea level rise scenario.”

The team also found that typical elevations of �鶹��ý‘s low-lying coastal plains create thresholds of flood levels, above which rapid increases in flooding occur. As sea level rises, coastal lands are exposed to higher flood depths and water velocities.

The prevalence of low-lying coastal plains leads to a rapid increase in land exposure to hazards when sea level exceeds a critical elevation of about 1 to 2 feet, depending on location.

The team had identified this phenomenon in previous research and named it a “critical point.”

“Additionally, a large portion of lands at risk of flooding is not in direct proximity to the shoreline,” said Anderson. “Instead, they are low-lying areas where sea-level rise causes the groundwater table to rise up to the surface. These areas can be located one to two miles inland from the coastline.”

Preparing for the future

The modeling presented in this study was conducted to support the creation of the �鶹��ý Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report, which is the basis for further government planning initiatives.

Anderson and team are currently incorporating rainfall into the computer model to determine how sea level-related flooding might be exacerbated during rainfall events that occur during high tides. , also located within SOEST, and Tetra Tech Inc. are helping to guide state and county agencies in considering this new data in future planning.

—By Marcie Grabowski

A student has published an anthology of climate-themed stories written by fellow classmates. The e-book, , edited by Kai Gaitley, is currently available on Amazon.

Gaitley took a literature and the environment geography class taught by Kathryn Besio. For the final exam, the students in the class were asked to write a climate-themed short story.

Gaitley says for many of the students, learning about the realities of climate change was a shock, having been fed a lifetime of disinformation. He says the fear and anger that sometimes bubbles up in the stories is a reflection of their feelings. “Many of the stories focus on family and home, showing who the authors were scared and angry for.”

“I suggested to Professor Besio that it would be nice to make these available as a collection, because as a whole, the message they conveyed was emblematic of the mindset of the group,” said Gaitley. “Professor Besio then suggested that for the next semester I should take on the project as directed studies. So in spring this year, I set about editing 13 short stories and learning the process of e-publishing.”

The student authors:

• “The Rising” by Kimiko Taguchi
• “Our Excuse” by Tessa Henderson
• “Plus-One: Fireball” by Tynsl Kailimai
• “Home Cooking” by Jack Stonehouse
• “Surviving the Heat” by Jess Bee
• “Little Soldiers” by Jadessa
• “The Last Directorate” by Uilani Lesli
• “The Journal of Emalia Lononui” by Kim Leolani Kalama
• “A Native’s Journey” by Paele Kiakona
• “The Koʻa Chronicle” by Jowell Kaimana Guerreiro
• “Naitram Saviors” by Heidi Featherstone
• “The Flora Design” by Traven Apiki
• “Ghosts of The Delta” by Kai A. Gaitley

The book’s cover art is by UH Hilo student Zoe Whitney.

When Gaitley decided to look for someone well known to do the introduction, he found Lynne Cherry, an internationally known environmentalist, author, illustrator and filmmaker dedicated to communicating with children. Cherry founded the educational organization , a film series dedicated to educating and empowering children and youth about addressing climate change. All proceeds from the anthology will go to the Young Voices for the Planet project.

“It was the greatest accident we could have imagined, as Lynne created the Young Voices for the Planet project, which makes films about young people doing incredible things to combat climate change,” Gaitley explains. “She readily agreed to help us and write an introduction [and then] promote it to her fans on our behalf.”

.

—By Susan Enright

The television series, produced by the University of �鶹��ý , won two 2018 Telly Awards for educational episodes focused on sea-level rise and coastal erosion in �鶹��ý.

The Telly Awards honor excellence in local, regional and cable TV programming. Voice of the Sea was selected for awards out of a highly competitive field of more than 12,000 entries from all 50 states and 5 continents.

Voice of the Sea won a silver Telly for the episode which highlights how rising sea levels in Waikīkī will impact the state’s critical infrastructure and fresh water supplies. The episode also showcases Sea Grant’s popular citizen science program: the .

The program was awarded a bronze Telly for the episode “.” It examines West Maui’s eroding beaches—where large condominiums are being threatened by loss of sand and severe erosion—and interviews Sea Grant faculty who are partnering with the community to develop viable solutions.

Voice of the Sea has won 16 Telly Awards since 2014.

“This award-winning television show, now in its fifth season, has been engaging and inspiring viewers of all ages throughout the Pacific since it began,” said Sea Grant Director . “I am so proud of all of the recognition the show is receiving and, as importantly, am thrilled that it is such an effective way for many organizations to share with the community the fascinating work that is occurring each and every day.”

More on Voice of the Sea

Voice of the Sea promotes ongoing scientific and cultural work in the Pacific from recognized experts and helps increase awareness, interest and knowledge of marine science. The half-hour television series airs on Saturdays at 4 p.m. and Sundays at 5:30 p.m. on K5 The Home Team.

The Voice of the Sea television series is a signature project of the UH Sea Grant , produced in collaboration with the UH ����ԴDz� ‘s and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Watch .

—By Cindy Knapman

The Honolulu Climate Change Commission, chaired by Professor , has presented its recommendations on sea level rise guidance and climate change to Mayor Kirk Caldwell and members of the Honolulu City Council. In response, Caldwell issued a formal directive to all city departments and agencies to take action in order to address, minimize the risks from and adapt to the impacts of climate change and sea level rise.

In its sea-level rise guidance, the commission emphasized that the city should be planning for high tide flooding to become a problem by mid-century. This will be associated with global mean sea level rise of 3.2 feet by the end of the century. Also, because of continued high global carbon emissions, the commission recommended taking into consideration 6 feet of sea-level rise in later decades of the century, especially for critical infrastructure with long expected lifespans and low-risk tolerance. The sea-level rise guidelines recommended by the commission are consistent with findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

“Coastal communities across the world are grappling with how to address rapid sea level rise due to climate change,” said Coffman. “The commissioners and I appreciate that our community has established a process by which science can directly inform decision-making. The city’s leadership has been proactive in understanding the scope of the problems that climate change will create for �鶹��ý and changing policies to make us more resilient. Embracing the commission’s sea level rise guidance is another step in this direction.”

• Related UH News story: UH experts appointed to city climate change commission

In an accompanying climate-change brief, an independent report that lays the foundation for the sea-level rise guidance, the Climate Change Commission agreed with the overwhelming majority of international scientists that the world is currently on a pathway of warming more than 5.4 degree F above pre-industrial levels.

Specific to the City and County of Honolulu, the commission included in its detailed sea-level rise guidance that rising seas will threaten Oʻahu communities and natural ecosystems in multiple ways, including increased vulnerability to flooding; land loss and coastal erosion; saltwater intrusion into streams and coastal wetlands; and increased damage when hurricanes, tsunamis and seasonal high waves strike. The commission further concluded that rising seas will negatively impact local communities, habitats, property, infrastructure, economies and industry.

“As a scientist, father and grandfather, I am grateful that Mayor Caldwell is acting with courage and speed on the commission’s recommendations,” said Commision Vice Chair , associate dean of UH ����ԴDz�’s . “I am extremely proud that in the City and County of Honolulu, and throughout the state of �鶹��ý, our leadership recognizes that every community must act immediately to reduce global carbon emissions and adapt to the climate change risks that are now inevitable. Unless the world joins us, we will all be facing severe and dire consequences.”

The commission, which carefully tracks a combination of international research and local modeling to underpin its decisions, also stressed that impacts from high tide flooding will arrive decades ahead of permanent inundation. Tidal flooding is projected to become more frequent and erode beaches, flood roads and, in times of rainfall, bring local transportation to a standstill. According to modeling by NOAA, under its “Intermediate scenario,” flooding exceeding last year’s “king tide” level could be present an average of twice per month in Honolulu before mid-century.

For centuries, indigenous peoples of the Hawaiian Islands practiced sustainable aquaculture by building walled fishponds in coastal estuaries. Historical records estimate that, in the early 1900s, an extensive network of more than 450 fishponds across the Hawaiian Islands produced upward of 2 million pounds of fish annually and supported large thriving communities. Currently, worldwide aquaculture accounts for almost one-half of fish consumption.

Researchers with the University of �鶹��ý at ����ԴDz�’s  (SOEST) and Native Hawaiian fishpond stewards formed a collaborative partnership to understand the role of climate change in subtropical coastal estuarine environments within the context of aquaculture practices in Heʻeia Fishpond on Oʻahu. indicate that there is a relationship between two periods of high fish mortality at Heʻeia Fishpond and changes in the climate.

“Today, a majority of Hawaiian fishponds have been lost to coastal development and urbanization, but a growing community-based movement is working to restore and revitalize Hawaiian fishponds as a cornerstone to sustainable food fish production and resilient communities in an era of declining reef fish stocks,” said Hiʻilei Kawelo, Paepae o Heʻeia executive director.

However, these efforts are threatened by uncertainty over the effects of short- and long-term environmental changes, specifically storms and fluctuations in extreme seawater temperature that bring new stressors and exacerbate existing management challenges.

New understanding informs resource management

Throughout the 12-year study from 2004 to 2016, the partners measured winds, tides, temperature, water height, water movement and suspended material and phytoplankton in the water; and fish number, density and length. During this time, �鶹��ý experienced periodic effects of El Niño such as slackening trade winds and warmer surface waters.

The partners correlated two periods of extremely high fish mortality at Heʻeia Fishpond with weakened trade winds in the week preceding each mortality event, as well as surface water temperatures 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. They posit that the lack of trade wind-driven surface water mixing enhanced surface heating of the fishpond, leading to stagnant conditions and stress on fish populations.

“Our results provide empirical evidence regarding El Niño effects on the coastal ocean, which can inform resource management efforts about the potential impact of climate variation on aquaculture production,” said , corresponding author of the study and assistant professor in the SOEST and University of �鶹��ý (�鶹��ý Sea Grant).

As climate change is predicted to alter the intensity, frequency and geographic patterns of El Niño events, the partners developed three recommendations to reduce the impact of warming events on fishponds and limit the mortality of moi. They recommended moving net pens closer to the mākāhā (sluice gates) with the highest flow rates of ocean water entering the fishpond which will decrease water temperatures and increase aeration in the pens. Additional steps include installing artificial aeration systems in the pens to limit stagnation and low oxygen, and implementing flexible harvest strategies at the onset of a warming event.

Using Hawaiian language newspapers to examine the past

To broaden understanding of Heʻeia Fishpond, the partners will next examine the impact of restoration on water chemistry in the fishpond over the past 10 years using a longtime series of data funded by �鶹��ý Sea Grant. Additionally, they are trying to determine how Native Hawaiians responded and adapted to these seasonal and episodic events. To do this, they have initiated investigation into the Hawaiian language newspapers to understand how these large scale climate patterns affected �鶹��ý.

“Surprisingly, we have not seen evidence of historical fishkills, and we hypothesize that either fishponds were much less vulnerable to these events, or these events were much less severe, or that our kupuna (elder/ancestor) developed adaptive measures to combat these events,” said Alegado.

—By Marcie Grabowski

Over the next three years, the  in the at the and its partners will receive more than $5 million from the in the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research line for sea level rise research.

One aspect of the new funding supports Multi-Model Seasonal Sea Level Forecasts for the U.S. Coast. It will combine several different models to produce experimental regional sea level outlooks months in advance for Pacific Islands including �鶹��ý, Puerto Rico and the entire continental U.S. Given that no seasonal prediction of coastal high water events currently exists on a national scale, this project will be invaluable to community members and community planners for long- and short-term decision-making. Ultimately, the research team will develop a web portal to provide the regional sea level outlooks to the public, including high-water alerts, which could be used for new or existing NOAA coastal flood products.

“The occurrence, duration and amplitude of coastal flooding events are increasing with rising sea levels,” said Mark Merrifield, lead investigator of the new seasonal sea level forecasts project and former director of the Sea Level Center. “The ability to assess when high regional sea levels are likely to occur will benefit managers and decision makers involved in coastal flooding mitigation.”

The other aspect of funding provides ongoing support for the Sea Level Center to collect and quality control tide gauge data from around the world through a cooperative agreement between NOAA and the . The Sea Level Center is the only group in the world that provides the public with up-to-date hourly sea level data from a global tide gauge network. These data are essential for studying sea level extremes and monitoring long-term global sea level rise.

“Support from NOAA enables the Sea Level Center to serve as a data center for sea level observations and maintain tide gauges in the Global Sea Level Observing System,” said Acting Director Philip Thompson. “With this substantial investment in sea level research and observations via the Sea Level Center, and with sea level rise being a big issue for the state, we are proud to be taking the lead on these new and continued efforts.”

—By Marcie Grabowski

In Professor theatre class last spring, she shared with her students a performance piece called Undesirable Elements by Ping Chong and Company. Student Randon Jack was moved by the performance and felt inspired to create a work in the spirit of Ping Chong’s work when he prepared for the course’s final exam. Jack, who was born and raised in Majuro, Marshall Islands, created a work is called Ta in “Marshall Islands?”

“Randon used the style and spirit of that (Ping Chong) effort to create his own version, reflecting on life in his atoll,” explains Johnson. “While very serious in nature, it begins with a true look at life on Randon’s atoll, sketches the lifestyle and traditions he holds dear, then reflects on the fragility of it all if/when sea level rise destroys his land.”

Johnson says the powerful final performance was the highlight of the semester.

“I believe that Ta encapsulates the range of pride and concern Randon feels about his home,” says Johnson. “Within the piece, he crafted images that led us through daily life, then shifted our attention to what would be lost because of the rising sea dilemma. Full of poignancy, Randon delivered the work with sensitivity, smiling at the memories and allowing the weight of the inevitable to wash over us at the end of the performance. There were gasps among his classmates and I was moved to tears.”

An excerpt from Jack’s work regarding sea level rise and the impact on his home.

What do I think of,
When I hear the words,
Sea level rise?
King tides
Becoming bigger and more frequent
Nothing our parents or grandparents
Have seen before
Waves crashing along the coasts
Where the graves face the sea
These tombs broken
Exposing coffins
Decomposed bodies
Are the deceased at peace now?
Homes broken down by the waves
Forcing families to move
But where else can they go?
Where else can we go?
We’ve no mountains to move to
We fight
Protest
Plead
For bigger nations to help us
Prevent sea level rise
Stop burning fossil fuels
But no one listens
They don’t care
As they did not care for us
When they first “discovered” us

(For Jack’s full piece, Ta in “Marshall Islands?”, go to .)

“He took an issue that affects him personally and used the performance medium to bring it to a new level of understanding,” says Johnson. “The more people who hear this message, the better.”

For the full story, go the .

—From UH Hilo Stories

This article is part of a series on curriculum and projects at UH Hilo focusing on sustainability. Read the previous stories:

• , September 11, 2017
• , September 18, 2017

—By Susan Enright

With the goal of preserving loko iʻa or Hawaiian fishponds, 15 faculty and students and more than 30 representatives from 18 traditional Hawaiian fishponds across four Hawaiian islands gathered together to share resources. The three-day workshop blended cultural and environmental resilience with contemporary technology.

Loko iʻa or Hawaiian fishponds, are unique aquaculture systems that exist throughout �鶹��ý, and continue to feed and connect communities around the islands. Among the 488 loko iʻa identified in a statewide survey, many are in degraded condition, sometimes completely beyond repair or unrecognizable as fishponds.

For the sites that are partially intact, communities and stewardship groups are actively restoring or have expressed interest in reviving the integrity and productivity of these places. Since 2004, kiaʻi loko, fishpond guardians and caretakers, have met as a statewide network known as Hui Mālama Loko iʻa with a purpose of sharing expertise and resources to amplify their collective work in reactivating loko iʻa throughout �鶹��ý. The network is currently facilitated by local non-profit (KUA).

Developing low-cost monitoring approaches

Technological advancements have exploded in the past five years, and the costs of emerging sensors and instruments have drastically decreased. Most of these advancements have not yet been applied to environmental sciences or oceanography. , associate professor of at the UH ����ԴDz� (SOEST), and his lab group and collaborators are developing new technologies and methods at the confluence of a growing interest in low-cost do-it-yourself electronics and the widespread acknowledgement that aquatic systems are woefully undersampled.

Over the past several years, and with funding from various sources, Glazer and team have developed low-cost wireless sensor packages that measure meteorological data, tides, water temperature, light, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, chlorophyll and turbidity—several parameters of interest that can inform the restoration and maintenance of fishponds across the state. Glazer sees this effort as a step in democratizing access to oceanographic sensor technology.

In addition to building their own tide gauges, participants visited Heʻeia Fishpond to talk with local kiaʻi loko about traditional measures of fishpond health and to see the new technology in action. The goals of the workshop, organized by Glazer and Loko Iʻa Coordinator at KUA Brenda Asuncion, included: information exchange to blend local and traditional coastal knowledge about loko iʻa with contemporary sensor technologies and oceanographic research; review lessons learned, understand fishpond restoration challenges, explore environmental sensor needs and knowledge gaps; and chart a course for developing future collaborations and success stories.

“This workshop is one important milestone in a very promising timeline of partnership between UH oceanography and local coastal communities,” said Glazer.

Funding for workshop and sensors

In addition to funding basic research, the National Science Foundation (NSF) supports capacity-building, community-building and direction-setting for Public Participation in Science Technology Engineering and Math Research (PPSR). In PPSR, members of the public partner with scientists and engineers to solve complex problems through participating in the formulation of questions and experiments; collection and analysis of data; and interpretation, use and publication of results.

A $300,000 award from NSF Ocean Sciences pioneered much of the lower-cost sensor network technology deployed at Heʻeia Fishpond between 2015 and 2017. A $50,000 award from the NSF Geoscience Directorate funded this workshop, and a new $670,000 award from NSF Ocean Sciences will fund continued sensor development in coastal �鶹��ý for 2017–2020. The Schmidt Family Foundation has funded an additional $150,000 for related nearshore oceanographic sensor work in 2017–2018. Independently, NOAA has designated the 1,385-acre Heʻeia National Estuarine Research Reserve, and the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System is developing new wave runup forecast tools for West Maui among other monitoring programs.

Additional partnership

A partnership between the following groups helped facilitate this workshop: National Science Foundation, KUA, Kamehameha Schools, Paepae o Heʻeia, Schmidt Marine Technology Partners and University of �鶹��ý STEM Pre-Academy.

—By Marcie Grabowski

In a special episode of which aired on July 23, researchers from the outreach specialists from the , and U.S. Senator Brian Schatz examined king tides and the effects of sea-level rise in Waikīkī.

�鶹��ý was once again impacted by king tides, the highest predicted tides of the year, on July 21–22. The last king tides event on June 24 resulted in the highest water level ever recorded on the Honolulu tide gauge in 112 years of recordkeeping (apart from Hurricane Iniki in 1992).

Voice of the Sea is a half-hour television show that profiles ocean and coastal scientists and cultural experts from �鶹��ý and the Pacific, and airs on Sundays at 6 p.m. on (Channel 5 and 1005).

Mark Merrifield from UH ����ԴDz� explains how climate change and sea-level rise could cause these high-water level events and flooding to eventually become commonplace. Matthew Gonser and Maya Walton from the UH Sea Grant College Program highlight the and how citizen scientists can get involved.

The episode premiered on July 23, 2017, and a second related episode featuring more information about sea-level rise and inundation will air on Sunday, July 30.

As a signature project of the UH Sea Grant College Program’s , Voice of the Sea aims to inspire an interest in ocean science, and teach concepts that apply to viewers' own lives and their relationship with the ocean and planet. It presents thought-provoking information in an exciting, original way. 

For more information and to view past episodes, visit .

—By Cindy Knapman

The University of �鶹��ý at ����ԴDz�’s will develop a high-resolution, real-time wave run-up forecast and notification system for West Maui’s coastline with a $500,000 award from .

PacIOOS will also model a suite of inundation planning scenarios that take rising sea levels and increasing wave energies into account. Site-specific, short- and long-term forecasts, will strengthen West Maui’s coastal community and economy by enhancing preparedness and response operations, and by informing future land use planning. The three-year project is expected to begin in October 2017.

Coastal erosion, property damage and water quality concerns

A combination of high water levels and large wave swells can result in significant coastal erosion, damage to infrastructure and properties and land-based sedimentation that impairs coastal water quality. The State of �鶹��ý has experienced an increase in wave plus tide-driven flooding in recent years, and these events are expected to grow in numbers and duration due to sea level rise and changing wave energies.

“We are affected by chronic shoreline erosion in West Maui. Some of the properties that are built close to the shoreline are literally on the brink of falling into the ocean,” said co-investigator , coastal processes extension agent. “Flooding and wave inundation is also a major concern for our infrastructure, including Honoapiʻilani Highway, which is the only reliable access to this part of the island. These roughly 21 miles of coastline are extremely important for Maui’s economy, local businesses, homeowners and visitors, and yet they are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of rising sea levels and wave inundation.”

Co-investigator , a professor with the at UH ����ԴDz�’s , explains, “West Maui is exposed to both large north and south swells that wrap into the coast in odd ways due to the ancient offshore reef topographies. While certain parts of the shoreline might not see any impacts, other sections can be appreciably flooded. Our model will incorporate relevant offshore and shoreline wave propagation characteristics to show the varying levels of vulnerability along the coast during each swell event.”

“We will work closely with coastal managers, emergency managers, property owners and local residents on Maui and around the state to ensure that data and tools are easy to understand and suitable for short- and long-term decision-making,” said Principal Investigator Melissa Iwamoto, PacIOOS director. “The goal is to better understand site-specific risks and vulnerabilities so that such stakeholders can integrate the information into community planning, policy-making and hazard-related ordinances.”

Data and tools will be available online

Project partners include UH SOEST, �鶹��ý Sea Grant, State of �鶹��ý Department of Land and Natural Resources and the County of Maui.

Citizen scientists will also participate in the project to validate and help improve the utility of the forecast through photo surveys. All data and tools will be available online for free.

NOAA’s Regional Coastal Resilience Grants Program received 167 proposals in 2017 and provides $13.8 million funding to 19 projects nationwide. NOAA, through cooperative resilience grant programs in both NOAA Fisheries and NOAA National Ocean Service, has awarded $34.7 million overall in coastal resilience grant funding from 2015 to 2017.

—By Fiona Langenberger

Researchers from the were out in force again this month to document and study the king tides that occurred on June 23 and 24. The water level along the coast, already expected to inundate nearshore areas with the some of the highest annual tides was enhanced by elevated water levels and a large south swell that arrived on the same day.

The elevated water levels are due to an unusual combination of lingering effects of El Niño, natural Pacific-wide climate and sea level variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, localized rotating eddies of elevated water level, and sea-level rise from global warming. According to the at the UH ����ԴDz� (SOEST), the high water levels are expected to continue through the summer.

High water level events will increase in the future

Currently the king tides and flooding associated with the higher water level occur just a few times per year. A recent study by scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and SOEST found that that sea-level rise will more than double the frequency of extreme water level events in �鶹��ý within decades. The high tides we are experiencing this summer are providing a snapshot of the future and what will eventually become commonplace.

“We are already facing the impacts of climate change and sea level rise today with widespread coastal erosion and increasing coastal flooding,” said Brad Romine, �鶹��ý Sea Grant coastal processes specialist. “Observations during the extreme water levels around the king tides are informing research and planning including for a statewide Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report due at the end of this year from the �鶹��ý Interagency Climate Adaptation Committee through scientific support from SOEST and University of �鶹��ý Sea Grant College Program faculty.”

Snap the shore, see the future

The spearheaded a �鶹��ý and Pacific Islands King Tides citizen science project and has been asking the community for help in capturing photos of the shoreline during the king tides events. In response, more than 200 people signed up to participate in the project and contributed more than 900 photographs during the May 2017 event alone. The photographs provide critical information that allows researchers and decision makers to better understand and prepare for the impacts of sea-level rise. To access these photographs or learn more about the project visit . To learn more about king tides and find links to additional resources visit .

Effects of June king tides at Hilo

Video provided by the UH Hilo .

—By Cindy Knapman

University of �鶹��ý President David Lassner signed the open letter to the international community and parties to the Paris Agreement from U.S. state, local, higher education, and business leaders in response to President Donald Trump’s June 1 announcement to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accord.

The letter reads:

We, the undersigned mayors, governors, college and university leaders and businesses are joining forces for the first time to declare, that we will continue to support climate action to meet the Paris Agreement.
In December 2015 in Paris, world leaders signed the first global commitment to fight climate change. The landmark agreement succeeded where past attempts failed because it allowed each country to set its own emission reduction targets and adopt its own strategies for reaching them.

In addition, nations–inspired by the actions of local and regional governments, along with businesses–came to recognize that fighting climate change brings significant economic and public health benefits.

The Trump administration’s announcement undermines a key pillar in the fight against climate change and damages the world’s ability to avoid the most dangerous and costly effects of climate change. Importantly, it is also out of step with what is happening in the United States.

In the U.S., it is local and state governments, along with businesses, that are primarily responsible for the dramatic decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in recent years. Actions by each group will multiply and accelerate in the years ahead, no matter what policies Washington may adopt.

In the absence of leadership from Washington, states, cities, colleges and universities and businesses representing a sizeable percentage of the U.S. economy will pursue ambitious climate goals, working together to take forceful action and to ensure that the U.S. remains a global leader in reducing emissions.

It is imperative that the world know that in the U.S., the actors that will provide the leadership necessary to meet our Paris commitment are found in city halls, state capitals, colleges and universities and businesses. Together, we will remain actively engaged with the international community as part of the global effort to hold warming to under 2°C and to accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy that will benefit our security, prosperity, and health.

, a 2017 spring graduate from the University of �鶹��ý at Mānoa’s (GES) degree program, conducted original research to determine how biological and physical factors affect the number of fish surviving to sustain populations of reef fish off West �鶹��ý Island.

Adult reef fish, like yellow tang, release eggs strategically—in places where the eggs can be swept into the open ocean to live out their free-floating larval stage and develop until they are ready to come back to the reef. This process of successfully returning home, termed recruitment, can be influenced by many physical factors including ocean currents, as well as biological strategies such as when and where fish larvae are born and how long the fish remain in the free-floating larval stage.

To explore the influence of these factors, Wong-Ala and her mentor, oceanography assistant professor , developed a computer model which accounted for date of birth, location of birth, movement of larvae, duration of the free-floating larval stage, development, settlement and death of larval reef fish off of �鶹��ý Island.

Their study found that recruitment changed depending on the fish’s birthdate due to influences of the currents, eddies and moon phase (i.e. tides). Additionally, location of birth mattered, with individuals born in shallow and sheltered bays having higher rates of recruitment compared to individuals born in unsheltered locations under certain conditions.

“This study provides a baseline understanding of how biophysical factors interact to impact recruitment in western �鶹��ý Island,” said Wong-Ala.

The information can be used to explain species-specific variation in recruitment from year to year and predict possible changes in the future. Understanding the amount of fish that make it back to the reef is important for maintaining sustainable reef fish populations.

Following her passion with supportive mentors

“I chose GES because it is an interdisciplinary major that allows us to learn about the changes in the environment, gain valuable computer skills, and focus on what we are truly interested [in],” said Wong-Ala, who was born and raised in Waimānalo, Oʻahu. “My favorite aspect of my thesis experience is the relationship that developed with my mentor. I have worked in her lab for three years and it has been an experience that has taught me so much. I hope to be a mentor like her in the future.”

A graduate of , Wong-Ala became interested in environmental science through the KCC School of Ocean, Earth, Science and Technology summer bridge program. She was invited to participate in Maile Mentoring Bridge, a program that strives to recruit and retain Native Hawaiian and kamaʻāina undergraduates in ocean, earth and environmental science degree programs at along with Barbara Bruno and Keolani Noa. The program helps student thrive through individualized mentoring and peer support.

Having graduated last Saturday, Wong-Ala is preparing to enter a graduate program at in Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.

—By Marcie Grabowski

Community groups and media have been relying on University of �鶹��ý researchers for their expertise in sea-level rise and the state’s record high tides. UH is also seeking the public’s help and involvement.

• Related UH News story: Summer flooding expected after water levels break 112-year record, May 19, 2017

The (�鶹��ý Sea Grant CCSR), and (PacIOOS) have been tracking high ocean water levels in the region, and are advising that the state likely will continue to experience unusually high tide levels through the summer, in part because of peak astronomic or ”king tides.”

The �鶹��ý Sea Grant CCSR is asking residents to help document high water levels and related impacts through the �鶹��ý and Pacific Islands king tides “citizen science” project by submitting photos online. For more information please visit .

Community members, businesses, and agencies also are encouraged to regularly check PacIOOS’ and to help increase preparedness and resiliency. Visit for more resources and information on how to get involved.

—By Kelli Trifonovitch

The highest water levels of the summer are expected around the upcoming peak astronomic tides of the year, known as “king tides,” occurring over a few days around May 26, June 23 and July 21 in �鶹��ý. These may produce flooding events similar to what occurred in late April, and University of �鶹��ý researchers say summer will provide a glimpse of what will eventually become routine with continued global warming and sea-level rise.

Localized impacts may include coastal erosion, wave over-wash and temporary flooding in low-lying backshore areas around storm drain systems. Impacts may be more severe if the upcoming king tides coincide with an elevated surf event, which occur most often on south and east shores this time of year, and/or during heavy rains. Actual water levels along exposed coasts will largely depend on wave heights during the high tides.

The University of �鶹��ý (�鶹��ý Sea Grant CCSR), and (PacIOOS) have been tracking high ocean water levels in the region, and are advising that the state likely will continue to experience unusually high tide levels through the summer.

“The oceanic and atmospheric processes that contribute to this prolonged period of high water levels in the �鶹��ý region occur naturally in cycles. But as sea levels continue to rise with global warming, we will see more and more instances when not just king tides but ordinary high tides combine with high water levels to reach flood stage, with adverse impacts to our beaches, coastal infrastructure, wetlands and low-lying areas of the islands,” said , a UH Mānoa professor, who also serves as director of �鶹��ý Sea Grant CCSR and UH Sea Level Center.

Help document king tides
The �鶹��ý Sea Grant CCSR is asking residents to help document high water levels and related impacts through the �鶹��ý and Pacific Islands King Tides “citizen science” project by submitting photos online. For more information please visit .

Water levels above predicted tidal heights

Data from NOAA tide stations around �鶹��ý show that observed water levels have been 3–6 inches above predicted tidal heights since early 2016. In late April, levels peaked at more than 9 inches above predicted tides at the Honolulu Harbor tide gauge, resulting in the highest daily mean water level ever observed over the 112-year record. The combination of elevated water levels, seasonally high tides and a large south shore surf event resulted in flooding on April 28, 2017.

The elevated water levels are attributed to an unusual combination of ocean eddies with high centers, Pacific-wide climate and sea level variability associated with recent El Niño events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and sea-level rise from global warming. Based on ocean model forecasts and satellite observations of sea level, UH Sea Level Center researchers indicate that elevated water levels are likely to persist through the summer.

Public should prepare

Property owners who have experienced flooding and erosion problems in the past, particularly those on south and windward shores, should anticipate impacts similar to those experienced during the high tides of late April. Boating and ocean recreation such as paddling and fishing may also experience unusual water levels and currents in addition to navigation hazards.

, associate dean of the , adds “Water levels may reach more than 1 foot above typical high tide and produce unusual flooding in low-lying regions. Within a few decades this will be the new normal. �鶹��ý should consider this a practice run, and reevaluate policies and development practices accordingly.”

Community members, businesses, and agencies also are encouraged to regularly check and to help increase preparedness and resiliency. Visit for more resources and information on how to get involved.

—By Cindy Knapman

from the University of �鶹��ý at Mānoa reveals a large part of the the heavily urbanized area of Honolulu and Waikīkī is at risk of groundwater inundation—flooding that occurs as groundwater is lifted above the ground surface due to sea level rise. , lead author of the study and doctoral student in the , (SOEST), and colleagues developed a computer model that combines ground elevation, groundwater location, monitoring data, estimates of tidal influence and numerical groundwater-flow modeling to simulate future flood scenarios in the urban core as sea level rises three feet, as is projected for this century under certain climate change scenarios.

• Research paper:

“This flooding will threaten $5 billion of taxable real estate; flood nearly 30 miles of roadway; and impact pedestrians, commercial and recreation activities, tourism, transportation and infrastructure,” said Habel. “The flooding will occur regardless of seawall construction, and thus will require innovative planning and intensive engineering efforts to accommodate standing water in the streets.”

Current problems with inundation

Surprisingly, the team of researchers also discovered 86 percent of active cesspools in the study area are likely currently inundated by groundwater. This suggests that cesspool effluent is now entering coastal groundwater and coastal environments in the study area. Sea level rise of approximately three feet would fully inundate 39 cesspools, introducing effluent at the ground surface where people work and live. This presents a serious health concern that will become progressively more serious as contaminated waters begin breaching the ground surface.

They also found that the water table is close to the ground surface—within two feet at high tide—in many places. This narrow unsaturated space means that groundwater inundation will become a serious concern well before the end of the century. When it rains and infiltration fills this space, it is a problem already.

“Waikīkī, the gateway of the state’s tourism industry, currently has such narrow unsaturated space that many construction projects working below the ground surface have to dewater the excavation before construction can begin,” said Habel.

Adaptation to future sea level rise

“Our findings suggest that coastal communities in �鶹��ý and globally are exposed to complex groundwater flooding hazards associated with sea level rise in addition to the typical concerns of coastal erosion and wave overtopping,” said , professor of geology and geophysics, associate dean of SOEST and principal investigator on the study. “Groundwater inundation will require entirely unique adaptation methods if we are to continue to live in and develop the coastal zone. Coastal planners and community stakeholders will need to work with architects, engineers, geologists, ecologists, economists, hydrologists and other innovative thinkers in order to manage these problems.”

This study identified particular locations and infrastructure that will be vulnerable to future flooding and is a crucial first step towards addressing future challenges. The team of researchers hope to use this methodology to identify future flooding and at risk infrastructure in other locations, as well as assist in developing adaptation efforts among vulnerable coastal communities.

This work was funded by �鶹��ý Department of Land and Natural Resources, the Honolulu Board of Water Supply, UH Sea Grant and and HKL Castle Foundation.

In �鶹��ý and throughout the Pacific Islands, sea-level rise is occurring. While most people are not negatively impacted by the rising seas on a daily basis yet, “king tides,” the highest predicted tides that occur only a few times per year, give us a glimpse into the future and show what will likely be at risk.

According to global projections, which are in line with what people in �鶹��ý can expect, a three-foot rise in sea-level by 2100 is predicted. In �鶹��ý and low-lying islands in the Pacific, this will be particularly devastating and could cause increased coastal flooding and beach loss, damage homes and infrastructure, endanger critical habitat, and impact tourism, a vital part of the state’s economy.

The University of �鶹��ý (�鶹��ý Sea Grant) is the project lead for this region of the Pacific for the International King Tides Project, Snap the Shore, See the Future, which captures and records extreme high tide events on a global scale.

On Monday, November 7, �鶹��ý Sea Grant will train community members on how to participate as citizen scientists and photograph the king tides that occur where they live, work and play.

Citizen scientist community training

• Monday, November 7, 6–7:30 p.m.
  ʻIolani School, Sullivan Center for Innovation and Leadership
 (563 Kamoku Street, Honolulu, HI 96826)

The training is free, but space is limited and registration is required. To register, go to .

The training will also be streaming . Registration is still requested; simply indicate your participation option through the ticket selection.

The upcoming king tides in �鶹��ý and the Pacific Islands will occur in the Republic of the Marshall Islands on November 15–16, �鶹��ý on November 17–18, American Samoa on December 12–13 and in Guam on December 13–14.

For more information, visit the or read the first appeared on University of Hawaiʻi System News.]]> 52587 /news/2015/07/15/new-tool-forecasts-high-sea-levels-and-potential-flooding-on-kwajalein-atoll/ /news/2015/07/15/new-tool-forecasts-high-sea-levels-and-potential-flooding-on-kwajalein-atoll/#_comments Thu, 16 Jul 2015 01:26:55 +0000 http://www.hawaii.edu/news/?p=36638 Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System tool gives hourly updates of potential high sea levels and wave inundation for Kwajalein Atoll.

Seawater overtopping roadways or flooding homes and businesses in low-lying communities can threaten the public health and safety of Pacific Islanders. A team of physical oceanographers working with the University of �鶹��ý at Mānoa’s (PacIOOS) has developed new tools to forecast potential inundation events so that affected communities can better prepare and respond to such threats days in advance. The forecast models are called the PacIOOS Six-Day High Sea Level Forecasts and the most recent developments include Apra Harbor in Guam and Malakai in Palau.

“Along with a more accurate analysis of the tides, the PacIOOS Six-Day High Sea Level Forecast tool utilizes analyses of several kinds of non-tidal sea level variability that can add to the height of the tide to produce unexpected flooding in coastal areas in the absence of storms or tsunamis,” explains Martin Guiles, PacIOOS senior physical oceanographic research specialist and project lead. “The predictions include the influences of currents and eddies that evolve over days, as well as shorter period motions not included in tide-only forecasts.”

Guiles reiterates that the forecasts do not include predictions of tsunamis or storm surge flooding. In those events, the public is advised to seek advice from the .

Guiles and Doug Luther, PacIOOS co-investigator and professor of at the , developed these forecasts in response to requests from ocean stakeholders in the PacIOOS region. Fishermen, divers, surfers, boaters, businesses, government agencies, and emergency responders all benefit from the increased prediction accuracy of sea level in areas where there may be an inundation and flooding threat. More informed citizens and agencies lead to better decisions and preparation.

To access the High Sea Level Forecasts, check out the PacIOOS .

—